I interpreted that question as a conditionalprobability, and so not required to be strictly less. In particular, P(X causes catastrophe | X was of the given type, and the first AGI developed, on the given date).
Nothing requires that this conditional probability should be less than “some AGI destroys the world conditional on any AGI being developed”.
I interpreted that question as a conditional probability, and so not required to be strictly less. In particular, P(X causes catastrophe | X was of the given type, and the first AGI developed, on the given date).
Nothing requires that this conditional probability should be less than “some AGI destroys the world conditional on any AGI being developed”.