I largely agree with that, but I think there’s an important asymmetry here: it’s much easier to come up with a plan that will ‘successfully’ do huge damage, than to come up with a plan that will successfully solve the problem.
So to have positive expected impact you need a high ratio of [people persuaded to come up with good plans] to [people persuaded that crazy dangerous plans are necessary].
I’d expect your post to push a large majority of readers in a positive direction (I think it does for me—particularly combined with Eliezer’s take). My worry isn’t that many go the other way, but that it doesn’t take many.
I think that’s a legit concern. One mitigating factor is that people who seem inclined to rash destructive plans tend to be pretty bad at execution, e.g. Aum Shinrikyo
I largely agree with that, but I think there’s an important asymmetry here: it’s much easier to come up with a plan that will ‘successfully’ do huge damage, than to come up with a plan that will successfully solve the problem.
So to have positive expected impact you need a high ratio of [people persuaded to come up with good plans] to [people persuaded that crazy dangerous plans are necessary].
I’d expect your post to push a large majority of readers in a positive direction (I think it does for me—particularly combined with Eliezer’s take).
My worry isn’t that many go the other way, but that it doesn’t take many.
I think that’s a legit concern. One mitigating factor is that people who seem inclined to rash destructive plans tend to be pretty bad at execution, e.g. Aum Shinrikyo