Not sure if this really belongs as a reply to Charlie or as a separate comment but seems to fit into the larger bucket here.
I do agree that considering the biology from a simple fact inquiry is needed (and I think others have been doing).
However, I think a big question is not being asked here. What happens if the truth becomes known? First, I think the outcomes will be a bit asymmetric—with proof of zoonotic origins being mostly a non-consequenceal outcome while proof of a lab leak potentially very dangerous.
Is there an element of some type of information cascade type situation here? How might that inform public debate and disclosure of facts and information?
Re “proof of a lab leak [is] potentially very dangerous”:
What’s the danger model here? That the US government would be forced to condemn China in that case and that China would react very aggressively to that? And that would lead to some kind of escalating spiral? Or something else?
Pretty much but perhaps a bit more extreme. What if that then spins into the view of a biologic warfare act that is feeding into the growing nationalism and increasingly polarized relationships and politics both internationally and internally in some countries vested in the discussion?
Not sure if this really belongs as a reply to Charlie or as a separate comment but seems to fit into the larger bucket here.
I do agree that considering the biology from a simple fact inquiry is needed (and I think others have been doing).
However, I think a big question is not being asked here. What happens if the truth becomes known? First, I think the outcomes will be a bit asymmetric—with proof of zoonotic origins being mostly a non-consequenceal outcome while proof of a lab leak potentially very dangerous.
Is there an element of some type of information cascade type situation here? How might that inform public debate and disclosure of facts and information?
Re “proof of a lab leak [is] potentially very dangerous”:
What’s the danger model here? That the US government would be forced to condemn China in that case and that China would react very aggressively to that? And that would lead to some kind of escalating spiral? Or something else?
Pretty much but perhaps a bit more extreme. What if that then spins into the view of a biologic warfare act that is feeding into the growing nationalism and increasingly polarized relationships and politics both internationally and internally in some countries vested in the discussion?