Looking at the four CFAR questions (described here), accuracy rates were:
74% OB folks (“Been here since it was started in the Overcoming Bias days”, n=253) 64% MoR folks (“Referred by Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality”, n=253) 66% everyone else
So the original OB folks did better, but Methods influx is as good as the other sources of new readers. Breaking it down by question:
The interesting question might be whether people whose primary interest is HPMOR are understanding and using ideas about rationality from it.
Not sure how one would test that, aside from the CFAR questions which I don’t know how to use.
Looking at the four CFAR questions (described here), accuracy rates were:
74% OB folks (“Been here since it was started in the Overcoming Bias days”, n=253)
64% MoR folks (“Referred by Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality”, n=253)
66% everyone else
So the original OB folks did better, but Methods influx is as good as the other sources of new readers. Breaking it down by question:
Question 1: disjunctive reasoning
OB: 52%
MoR: 42%
Other: 44%
Question 2: temporal discounting
OB: 94%
MoR: 89%
Other: 91%
Question 3: law of large numbers
OB: 92%
MoR: 85%
Other: 81%
Question 4: decoy effect
OB: 57%
MoR: 41%
Other: 49%
One possibility would be for Eliezer to ask people about it in his author’s notes when he updates HPMOR.
On the second reading, I realize that I’m asking about HPMOR and spreading rationality rather than HPMOR and community building.