My guess is that a lot of predictions → you’re wrong sometimes → it feels like you’re wrong a lot. Contrasted with not making many predictions → not being actually wrong as much. If so:
1) Percent incorrect is what matters, not number incorrect. I’m sure you know this, but it could be difficult to get your System 1 to know it.
2) If making a lot of predictions does happen to lead to a high percentage incorrect, that’s valuable information to you! It tells you that your models of the world are off and thus provides you with an opportunity to improve!
Sorry to hear that :(
My guess is that a lot of predictions → you’re wrong sometimes → it feels like you’re wrong a lot. Contrasted with not making many predictions → not being actually wrong as much. If so:
1) Percent incorrect is what matters, not number incorrect. I’m sure you know this, but it could be difficult to get your System 1 to know it.
2) If making a lot of predictions does happen to lead to a high percentage incorrect, that’s valuable information to you! It tells you that your models of the world are off and thus provides you with an opportunity to improve!