The CAIS model suggests that before we get to a world with monolithic AGI agents, we will already have seen an intelligence explosion due to automated R&D.
This conclusion seems similar to the one Paul arrives at here:
In the slow takeoff scenario, pre-AGI systems have a transformative impact that’s only slightly smaller than AGI.
This conclusion seems similar to the one Paul arrives at here:
(See also this post from AI Impacts.)