Walk me through a through a structured, superforecaster-like reasoning process of how likely it is that [X]. Define and use empirically testable definitions of [X]. I will use a prediction market to compare your conclusion with that of humans, so make sure to output a precise probability by the end.
Walk me through a through a structured, superforecaster-like reasoning process of how likely it is that [X]. Define and use empirically testable definitions of [X]. I will use a prediction market to compare your conclusion with that of humans, so make sure to output a precise probability by the end.