Also—I’m assuming that postponing ageing for living people is easier than reviving dead people and is likely to arrive sooner. Not that I’m in anyway conversant with Bayesianism but I’m figuring it supports this assumption—technology to extend lifespan is, as far as I can see, a necessary component of reviving dead people. So the probability of the former is necessarily higher than the probability of the latter. There is no scenario in which reviving dead people arrives first and only a tiny probability that both technologies arrive simultaneously. This means that by the time it is possible to thaw and revive there is very little to compel cryonics companies to remain in business to avail of the technology and very little to compel them to honour their contracts.
A lot of the talk about this is of the Pascal’s wager variety—“But the potential payoff is so high it justifies almost any expense, a good bet” this ignores a) forgive me, Bayesianism: multiplying the expected payoff by the appropriate probability of that payoff and b) the opportunity cost of the money it costs to sign uo for cryonics—these are not trifling sums, particularly when considered in the purported timespan of the payoff.
Also—I’m assuming that postponing ageing for living people is easier than reviving dead people and is likely to arrive sooner. Not that I’m in anyway conversant with Bayesianism but I’m figuring it supports this assumption—technology to extend lifespan is, as far as I can see, a necessary component of reviving dead people. So the probability of the former is necessarily higher than the probability of the latter. There is no scenario in which reviving dead people arrives first and only a tiny probability that both technologies arrive simultaneously. This means that by the time it is possible to thaw and revive there is very little to compel cryonics companies to remain in business to avail of the technology and very little to compel them to honour their contracts.
A lot of the talk about this is of the Pascal’s wager variety—“But the potential payoff is so high it justifies almost any expense, a good bet” this ignores a) forgive me, Bayesianism: multiplying the expected payoff by the appropriate probability of that payoff and b) the opportunity cost of the money it costs to sign uo for cryonics—these are not trifling sums, particularly when considered in the purported timespan of the payoff.