As to your last paragraph: yes, Lana could have imagined the future “one step further” by considering what would have happened when both sides of a war acquire these flying ships. In this respect, his “error” in considering only one of the two sides seems similar to one of Sun Tzu which goes something like:
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
What happens when both you and your enemy “know the enemy and know yourself”. How can neither of you not fear the result of a hundred battles?
However, consider also The Bomber Will Always Get Through, some 300 years later, as a counterpoint to “develop new strategies to defend against this new threat”.
What happens when both you and your enemy “know the enemy and know yourself”. How can neither of you not fear the result of a hundred battles?
Two interpretations jump to mind: the first is that ‘fear’ is interpreted as uncertainty, the second is that mutually fully informed agents could do enough damage to each other that war between them is senseless, and thus there are no battles.
Alternately, I interpreted it as saying that war between two such agents will always be a stalemate, with both sides gingerly risking pawns and trading minor victories which, while never leading to substantial success, do not lead to crushing defeat, either.
Of course, your second interpretation is much more applicable in the general case of two sides which are not evenly matched, in which case the weaker one will accept their defeat (either by surrendering or deciding to go out in a defiant but hopeless battle), in which case your first interpretation comes into play.
I note that people on the ground did develop new strategies to defend against planes. Radar and antiaircraft guns and those balloon things to take them down, bomb shelters to make them less lethal. I wonder how many WWII bombers would it take to land a single bomb on DC?
The bombers also evolved, of course (I guess now it would be “the missile will always get through”), and my understanding is that defense hasn’t kept up with offense. But a race with a clear victor isn’t the same thing as no race at all.
As to your last paragraph: yes, Lana could have imagined the future “one step further” by considering what would have happened when both sides of a war acquire these flying ships. In this respect, his “error” in considering only one of the two sides seems similar to one of Sun Tzu which goes something like:
What happens when both you and your enemy “know the enemy and know yourself”. How can neither of you not fear the result of a hundred battles?
However, consider also The Bomber Will Always Get Through, some 300 years later, as a counterpoint to “develop new strategies to defend against this new threat”.
Two interpretations jump to mind: the first is that ‘fear’ is interpreted as uncertainty, the second is that mutually fully informed agents could do enough damage to each other that war between them is senseless, and thus there are no battles.
Alternately, I interpreted it as saying that war between two such agents will always be a stalemate, with both sides gingerly risking pawns and trading minor victories which, while never leading to substantial success, do not lead to crushing defeat, either.
Of course, your second interpretation is much more applicable in the general case of two sides which are not evenly matched, in which case the weaker one will accept their defeat (either by surrendering or deciding to go out in a defiant but hopeless battle), in which case your first interpretation comes into play.
I note that people on the ground did develop new strategies to defend against planes. Radar and antiaircraft guns and those balloon things to take them down, bomb shelters to make them less lethal. I wonder how many WWII bombers would it take to land a single bomb on DC?
The bombers also evolved, of course (I guess now it would be “the missile will always get through”), and my understanding is that defense hasn’t kept up with offense. But a race with a clear victor isn’t the same thing as no race at all.