I don’t think Dreyfus is a generally good prophet. I think he made a great prediction in 1965, and that it would have been hard to see at the time that it was a good prediction. The lessons to draw, in my opinion, were “sometimes outsiders have very correct predictions”, and “some of the features of Dreyfus’s predictions (the specific examples, decomposition and understanding) are (weak) signs of good predictive ability”.
I don’t think Dreyfus is a generally good prophet. I think he made a great prediction in 1965, and that it would have been hard to see at the time that it was a good prediction. The lessons to draw, in my opinion, were “sometimes outsiders have very correct predictions”, and “some of the features of Dreyfus’s predictions (the specific examples, decomposition and understanding) are (weak) signs of good predictive ability”.