Is being anti-lottery some kind of badge of honor amongst intelligent people? It is entertainment, not investment. It is spending money to buy a feeling excited expectance. It is like buying a movie ticket. Does anyone consider buying a ticket to scary horror movie irrational? Some people just like that kind of excitement. People who buy lottery tickets just like different kinds of excitement, dream, fantasy.
As for the argument that it is a mis-investment of emotions that is also false, people can decide to work forward the goal then what happens is a lot of grinding, they can still dream about something else, it is not like you cannot dream while you grind. Realistic goals do not need a lot of dream investment but rather time and effort and it is safe to invest dreams in unrealistic ones.
When I have read Eliezer’s mis-investment of emotions argument it came accross to me an elitistic Bay Area upper middle class thing. People in slums usually need to grind until they get a better schooling and job experience to escape it, this takes time investment not dream investment, and this leaves them free to dream about one day being a prince.
Realistic goals do not need a lot of dream investment but rather time and effort and it is safe to invest dreams in unrealistic ones.
I think this is factually untrue. It seems to me that time and effort investment follows dream investment, for basic psychological reasons.
When I have read Eliezer’s mis-investment of emotions argument it came accross to me an elitistic Bay Area upper middle class thing.
I think that’s because you misread it, or you’re identifying correct financial attitudes with being upper middle class and throwing in the rest of the descriptions for free. Here’s the part where he talks about mechanisms:
If not for the lottery, maybe they would fantasize about going to technical school, or opening their own business, or getting a promotion at work—things they might be able to actually do, hopes that would make them want to become stronger.
Going to technical school is not an “elitistic Bay Area upper middle class thing.” Yes, later he talks about dot-com startups doing IPOs, but the vast majority of new businesses started are things like barbershops and restaurants, and people go to technical school to learn how to repair air conditioning systems, not to learn how to make Yelp. A person who dreams about owning their own barbershop or being an AC repairperson or demonstrating enough responsibility at work to earn a promotion is likely to do better than someone who dreams about being a lottery prince.
That is, I think a key component of grinding successfully is dreaming about grinding.
Basically you are saying constant grinding requires constant motivation—or discipline?
But in reality all it takes is the precommitment of shame.
Example 1. you come from a working-class or slum family, get into a university as the first one in the family. Your mom and grandma brags the whole kin and neighborhood full with what a genius you are. At that point, you are strongly precommitted, not exactly through your own choice, you don’t want the shame of 100 people treating yoiu like a genius to be let down by you dropping out.
Example 2. you get your first real job and it sucks, but your dad is proudly supporting a family for 25 years know on a similarly sucky one and for you to get his approval / not feel ashamed in his eyes you need to stick to it until you get enough experience for a better one.
I think the elitism part is precisely in the lack of this kind of shame-precommitment: elites have discretionary goals, doing what they want, not what they must to get ahead, and thus need constant motivation. If you would quit a job once it stops being fun, you are of the elites in this sense. If you stick to it until it does not feel shameful to quit, then not.
And this is why for the majority constant motivation is not required for constant grinding.
I think the elitism part is precisely in the lack of this kind of shame-precommitment: elites have discretionary goals, doing what they want, not what they must to get ahead, and thus need constant motivation.
I think it’s quite the reverse: elites have strong shame-precommittment, it’s only a few levels higher. All your family went to Harvard and you’re going to fail?? Your ancestors have Ph.Ds three generations back and you’re not enrolling in a graduate program?? X-D
Of course I mean elites not of the Kardashian kind.
I was careful to specify that your hypothetical friend enjoins you to buy lottery tickets on the grounds that it is good for you financially. I agree that if you get great enjoyment from the thought that you might win the lottery, buying lottery tickets may be worth it for you.
(But two caveats on that last point. Firstly, if you enjoy daydreaming about getting rich then you can equally daydream about unexpected legacies, spectacular success of companies in your pension/investment portfolio if you have one, eccentric billionaire arbitrarily giving you a pile of money, etc. Of course these are improbable, but so is winning much in the lottery. Secondly, “dream investment” may lead you astray by, e.g., making all the most mentally salient paths to success the terribly improbable ones involving lotteries rather than the more-probable ones involving lots of hard work, and demotivating the hard work. Whether it actually has that effect is a question for the psychologists; I don’t know whether it’s one that’s been answered.)
I was careful to specify that your hypothetical friend enjoins you to buy lottery tickets on the grounds that it is good for you financially.
Good point; I’m retracting my comment elsethread.
Whether it actually has that effect is a question for the psychologists; I don’t know whether it’s one that’s been answered.
I’m guessing the hard part is figuring out which way the causation goes—maybe not having mentally salient paths to success involving lots of hard work makes people more likely to buy lottery tickets, rather than or as well as vice versa.
Don’t people who go to amusement parks or Disneyland basically pay other people in order to have a daydream session? I mean, I can’t imagine people walking around dreaming about winning a lottery, it would be Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. (Now that’s a book about humanity outcompeted by a more profitable life form under the guidance of an omnipotent being.)
How is ‘you can safely put on a princess’s dress when you are in certain company, and pay in some amount of social embarrassment if you are wrong about the company’ different from ‘you can safely pay a small amount for a chance to put on any dress you want in any company whatsoever’? Buying a ticket is an experience you can’t get otherwise on your own.
(I mean yes, I largely agree with you, but I am not sure what exactly I agree with, therefore the nitpicking.)
How is ‘you can safely put on a princess’s dress when you are in certain company, and pay in some amount of social embarrassment if you are wrong about the company’ different from ‘you can safely pay a small amount for a chance to put on any dress you want in any company whatsoever’?
Well, in what way is buying a ticket not paying other people to provide you an experience which you can’t get otherwise on your own? Earning money is different, you expect to be paid a fixed sum and for many, there are multiple ways to do it.
If you want a strictly positive chance at getting a million dollars and the thrill of looking up the lottery drawings to see if you won, then you have to pay for it. People buy lottery tickets to have a fleeting, tangible hope, not just an imagined one.
If you want a strictly positive chance at getting a million dollars
You have a strictly positive chance of having a rich and unknown to you relative die and leave her fortune to you.
the thrill
Ah, that’s a good point. Yes, if you want the gambling thrill, then you have to pay for it, I agree. However from the expected-loss point of view, going to a casino is much better than buying lottery tickets...
For that matter, there’s a strictly positive chance that a meteor made of two tons of platinum will fall from the sky tomorrow and flatten my car in the driveway before I’m done brushing my teeth. The probability of almost anything you can think of is going to be positive, unless it’s physically impossible—and even there you have model uncertainty to take into account.
Is being anti-lottery some kind of badge of honor amongst intelligent people? It is entertainment, not investment. It is spending money to buy a feeling excited expectance. It is like buying a movie ticket. Does anyone consider buying a ticket to scary horror movie irrational? Some people just like that kind of excitement. People who buy lottery tickets just like different kinds of excitement, dream, fantasy.
As for the argument that it is a mis-investment of emotions that is also false, people can decide to work forward the goal then what happens is a lot of grinding, they can still dream about something else, it is not like you cannot dream while you grind. Realistic goals do not need a lot of dream investment but rather time and effort and it is safe to invest dreams in unrealistic ones.
When I have read Eliezer’s mis-investment of emotions argument it came accross to me an elitistic Bay Area upper middle class thing. People in slums usually need to grind until they get a better schooling and job experience to escape it, this takes time investment not dream investment, and this leaves them free to dream about one day being a prince.
I think this is factually untrue. It seems to me that time and effort investment follows dream investment, for basic psychological reasons.
I think that’s because you misread it, or you’re identifying correct financial attitudes with being upper middle class and throwing in the rest of the descriptions for free. Here’s the part where he talks about mechanisms:
Going to technical school is not an “elitistic Bay Area upper middle class thing.” Yes, later he talks about dot-com startups doing IPOs, but the vast majority of new businesses started are things like barbershops and restaurants, and people go to technical school to learn how to repair air conditioning systems, not to learn how to make Yelp. A person who dreams about owning their own barbershop or being an AC repairperson or demonstrating enough responsibility at work to earn a promotion is likely to do better than someone who dreams about being a lottery prince.
That is, I think a key component of grinding successfully is dreaming about grinding.
Basically you are saying constant grinding requires constant motivation—or discipline?
But in reality all it takes is the precommitment of shame.
Example 1. you come from a working-class or slum family, get into a university as the first one in the family. Your mom and grandma brags the whole kin and neighborhood full with what a genius you are. At that point, you are strongly precommitted, not exactly through your own choice, you don’t want the shame of 100 people treating yoiu like a genius to be let down by you dropping out.
Example 2. you get your first real job and it sucks, but your dad is proudly supporting a family for 25 years know on a similarly sucky one and for you to get his approval / not feel ashamed in his eyes you need to stick to it until you get enough experience for a better one.
I think the elitism part is precisely in the lack of this kind of shame-precommitment: elites have discretionary goals, doing what they want, not what they must to get ahead, and thus need constant motivation. If you would quit a job once it stops being fun, you are of the elites in this sense. If you stick to it until it does not feel shameful to quit, then not.
And this is why for the majority constant motivation is not required for constant grinding.
I think it’s quite the reverse: elites have strong shame-precommittment, it’s only a few levels higher. All your family went to Harvard and you’re going to fail?? Your ancestors have Ph.Ds three generations back and you’re not enrolling in a graduate program?? X-D
Of course I mean elites not of the Kardashian kind.
I was careful to specify that your hypothetical friend enjoins you to buy lottery tickets on the grounds that it is good for you financially. I agree that if you get great enjoyment from the thought that you might win the lottery, buying lottery tickets may be worth it for you.
(But two caveats on that last point. Firstly, if you enjoy daydreaming about getting rich then you can equally daydream about unexpected legacies, spectacular success of companies in your pension/investment portfolio if you have one, eccentric billionaire arbitrarily giving you a pile of money, etc. Of course these are improbable, but so is winning much in the lottery. Secondly, “dream investment” may lead you astray by, e.g., making all the most mentally salient paths to success the terribly improbable ones involving lotteries rather than the more-probable ones involving lots of hard work, and demotivating the hard work. Whether it actually has that effect is a question for the psychologists; I don’t know whether it’s one that’s been answered.)
Good point; I’m retracting my comment elsethread.
I’m guessing the hard part is figuring out which way the causation goes—maybe not having mentally salient paths to success involving lots of hard work makes people more likely to buy lottery tickets, rather than or as well as vice versa.
Why do you need to pay money to someone in order to daydream?
The problem is that “dreaming” often replaces grinding.
Don’t people who go to amusement parks or Disneyland basically pay other people in order to have a daydream session? I mean, I can’t imagine people walking around dreaming about winning a lottery, it would be Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. (Now that’s a book about humanity outcompeted by a more profitable life form under the guidance of an omnipotent being.)
No, they pay other people to provide experiences for them, experiences which they can’t get otherwise on their own.
How is ‘you can safely put on a princess’s dress when you are in certain company, and pay in some amount of social embarrassment if you are wrong about the company’ different from ‘you can safely pay a small amount for a chance to put on any dress you want in any company whatsoever’? Buying a ticket is an experience you can’t get otherwise on your own. (I mean yes, I largely agree with you, but I am not sure what exactly I agree with, therefore the nitpicking.)
Huh? I don’t understand.
Well, in what way is buying a ticket not paying other people to provide you an experience which you can’t get otherwise on your own? Earning money is different, you expect to be paid a fixed sum and for many, there are multiple ways to do it.
In the way that I can, on my own, daydream about having a million dollars. I don’t need to pay other people for that.
If you want a strictly positive chance at getting a million dollars and the thrill of looking up the lottery drawings to see if you won, then you have to pay for it. People buy lottery tickets to have a fleeting, tangible hope, not just an imagined one.
You have a strictly positive chance of having a rich and unknown to you relative die and leave her fortune to you.
Ah, that’s a good point. Yes, if you want the gambling thrill, then you have to pay for it, I agree. However from the expected-loss point of view, going to a casino is much better than buying lottery tickets...
For that matter, there’s a strictly positive chance that a meteor made of two tons of platinum will fall from the sky tomorrow and flatten my car in the driveway before I’m done brushing my teeth. The probability of almost anything you can think of is going to be positive, unless it’s physically impossible—and even there you have model uncertainty to take into account.
Yes, of course, which is why talking about “strictly positive chances” in this context (of suddenly acquiring wealth) is kinda silly.