This is actually another related area of my research: To the extent that we cannot get people to sit down and agree on double cruxes, can we still assign some reasonable likelihoods and/or uncertainty estimates for those likelihoods? After all, we do ultimately need to make decisions here! Or if it turns out that we literally cannot use any numbers here, how do we best make decisions anyway?
It’s an interesting question, I think Scott A explored it as https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/03/repost-epistemic-learned-helplessness/ . But it would likely be inferior to figuring out a way for people to either double-crux, or at least do some kind of adversarial collaboration. Seems a lot easier than the problem we are trying to address, so what hope is there for the bigger problem if this one remains unresolved?
This is actually another related area of my research: To the extent that we cannot get people to sit down and agree on double cruxes, can we still assign some reasonable likelihoods and/or uncertainty estimates for those likelihoods? After all, we do ultimately need to make decisions here! Or if it turns out that we literally cannot use any numbers here, how do we best make decisions anyway?
It’s an interesting question, I think Scott A explored it as https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/03/repost-epistemic-learned-helplessness/ . But it would likely be inferior to figuring out a way for people to either double-crux, or at least do some kind of adversarial collaboration. Seems a lot easier than the problem we are trying to address, so what hope is there for the bigger problem if this one remains unresolved?