https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine suggests that we do have enough gas reserves to heat in Germany in March and April.
As long as it does not get really cold, according to the article.
It may be that I have overestimated the risk of a very cold late winter (implicitly I used 40% to get from 25% gas embargo risk to 10% risk for shortages).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine suggests that we do have enough gas reserves to heat in Germany in March and April.
As long as it does not get really cold, according to the article.
It may be that I have overestimated the risk of a very cold late winter (implicitly I used 40% to get from 25% gas embargo risk to 10% risk for shortages).