And a 5% chance of cryonics working seems hopelessly optimistic to me. So let’s make that a 0.0000001% chance of working. Suddenly it seems like a pretty lousy deal. Do you think any rational person would still say yes?
No, they wouldn’t. If that really is your estimated probability (where did you get those six zeros from? why not three, or twenty?), then you should not sign up for cryo. Those involved think there’s a much higher chance than that. In fact, 5% is the usual order of magnitude.
And you won’t have any other use for that money when you’re dead. Whether it would be better to give it away and certainly die is a whole other issue. (EA meets cryonics — there’s a subject for an interesting debate.)
So yes, those signing up are betting on a long shot, but not an impossibly long one.
Most people are bad at converting their beliefs to numerical probabilities, are bad at estimating low probabilities in general, and will pick numbers in a certain range that sound low enough even when the number that is actually consistent with their beliefs is much lower. It’s like vegetarians who say “well, maybe chickens are sentient enough that they have 1% of the moral value of humans”. Almost nobody who asserts that would then save 101 chickens in preference to 1 human.
How much would someone have to bet you to chug 500ml of wine?
5 dollars?
Lets go with 5 for now.
For an investment of 200K to be worth it it would have to be worth at least 40000 micromorts.
If I was certain that my method of death would preserve the brain and thus had the full million micromorts to play with then odds of 4% that the procedure would work would be just, just good enough to make it vaguely reasonable.
Also you perform a few actions every day that could see you dying in a manner that involves your brain being destroyed or damaged too significantly for cryonics to help much.
We’re not starting from the full million, accident, fire, bodyloss, alzheimer’s, too-slow freezing, people ignoring the advanced directive about what’s to be done with your head etc eats up a big chunk of the probability space.
Lets say there’s a 50⁄50 chance, now it needs a procedure that’s 8% successful to be reasonable. Optimistic people like to say around 5%, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s bellow 1% or even 0.1% or if it could turn out once they figure out how to actually do it that most current freezing methods are unsuitable and lead to a husk vaguely like you with most of it’s memories mangled.
People value their lives but most don’t value their lives above everything else in the universe and would prefer to give their grandkids a college fund rather than taking a long shot at immortality.
This is really an argument to have with those who advocate signing up. But as it’s directed to me, I’ll point out one factor that needs to be included in that calculation.
What’s your value for a micromort to you?
What’s the size of a micromort?
A millionth of an ordinary lifetime, or a millionth of the lifetime one might have if cryonics pays off? Given commensurate advances in medicine generally, if you get revived, you might expect a much longer lifespan.
BTW, it would take a lot more than $5 to persuade me to drink a gratuitous half litre of wine. For me, that amount would be close to throwing up in the street and having the following morning wiped out recovering from the hangover. I’ve done that a few times in the past, but only enough to know better.
People value their lives but most don’t value their lives above everything else in the universe and would prefer to give their grandkids a college fund rather than taking a long shot at immortality.
Some do prefer that, some sign up for cryo, some can afford both, some neither, and some do completely different things with their resources. People are different and there’s no need for everyone to do the same thing.
For that we’d have to get into QALY’s which is tough since we can’t make any kind of reasonable estimates for how many QALY’s someone would gain (perhaps future government decides to deal with a population crisis by setting maximum year limits).
Micromorts aren’t perfect but do make it possible to compare because 1 micromort suffered today can be used to judge cash value something is worth. If you’d accept a minimum of $10,000 to perform a 100 micromort task today(making you quite a bit more cautious than average) that still reduces your chances of immortality even if you’re signed up for cryonics which allows you to do some kind of cost/reward tradeoff calculations.
And you won’t have any other use for that money when you’re dead.
That’s assuming you’d otherwise die with enough money to pay for it, and neglecting fees that need to be paid while alive. “Life insurance” doesn’t solve this, you still need to pay for it.
Many employers provide life insurance. I’ve always thought that was kind of weird (but then, all of life insurance is weird; it’s more properly “death insurance” anyhow) but it’s a think. My current employer provides (at no cost to me) a life insurance policy sufficient to pay for cryonics. It would currently be given charitably—I have no dependents and my family is reasonably well off—but I’ve considered changing that.
That doesn’t change the situation much, if you can sell it (or get higher pay for refusing it). If you somehow can’t extract value from it (doubtful unless there are laws against selling), then it’s relevant.
I haven’t investigated selling it, but up to a certain multiple of my annual salary it’s included in my benefits and there is no value in setting it lower than that value; I wouldn’t get any extra money.
This is a fairly standard benefit from tech companies (and others that have good benefits packages in the US), apparently. It feels odd but it’s been like this at the last few companies I worked for, differing only in the insurance provider whose policy is used and the actual limit before you’d need to pay extra.
I just looked it up, and apparently reselling life insurance is so popular it has its own word: viatical. I expect you’d get reasonably close to fair value for it, and if you wouldn’t pay fair value for it, you probably should be willing to accept fair value for it.
Although I’m not entirely clear if you can resell life insurance bought by an employer.
No that one in a billion was meant to be illustrative, not a real estimate of probability. But honestly even if you lower that 5% probability by only 1 or 2 orders of magnitude the proposition already becomes very dubious.
Don’t forget that you can also extend your life by spending that money some other way. I think the singularity will probably happen somewhere between 2040 and 2060. So when I’m between 58 and 78 years old. This means I have a good chance to make it even without cryonics. Instead of taking that extra life insurance to pay for cryonics, I could for example also decide to work a few hours a week less, and spend that time on exercise. Not only would that be more enjoyable, it would also probably do more for my chances to reach the singularity.
If you’re significantly older now, that particular math may change. But cryonics is still a long shot, and spending so much money still means a significant hit in quality of life.
I’m very curious why you think 5% is a realistic estimate of the probability of cryonics working (actually on the probability of cryonics working for you personally. So some of that probability will have to be spent on you not dying in a way that makes cryonics impossible, or on the cryonics company not going bust, or on there being no unexpected legal obstacles, etc). If you want to sell me on cryonics, this is what you will have to sell me on.
I’m very curious why you think 5% is a realistic estimate of the probability of cryonics working
I don’t have a particular opinion on that. It’s just the sort of figure I’ve seen from people in favour of cryo — that is the chance they are betting on, not a lottery jackpot. I am not signed up and am not planning to, despite having a sufficient pile of money. At the same time, I don’t think the whole cryo movement is misguided either. It’s an idea that should be pursued by those with the motivation to do so, both by freezing bodies now and researching preservation and revival methods.
I also don’t have a particular opinion about how soon a singularity may happen (or a global extinction). For those who think that one of those is very likely to happen before they need cryo, cryo is also not a good bet. At least, they might want to keep their cryo funding in a more liquid form than an insurance policy.
So some of that probability will have to be spent on you not dying in a way that makes cryonics impossible, or on the cryonics company not going bust, or on there being no unexpected legal obstacles, etc). If you want to sell me on cryonics, this is what you will have to sell me on.
Yes, those are real concerns that anyone contemplating signing up, or urging other people to, has to assess.
No, they wouldn’t. If that really is your estimated probability (where did you get those six zeros from? why not three, or twenty?), then you should not sign up for cryo. Those involved think there’s a much higher chance than that. In fact, 5% is the usual order of magnitude.
And you won’t have any other use for that money when you’re dead. Whether it would be better to give it away and certainly die is a whole other issue. (EA meets cryonics — there’s a subject for an interesting debate.)
So yes, those signing up are betting on a long shot, but not an impossibly long one.
Most people are bad at converting their beliefs to numerical probabilities, are bad at estimating low probabilities in general, and will pick numbers in a certain range that sound low enough even when the number that is actually consistent with their beliefs is much lower. It’s like vegetarians who say “well, maybe chickens are sentient enough that they have 1% of the moral value of humans”. Almost nobody who asserts that would then save 101 chickens in preference to 1 human.
What’s your value for a micromort to you?
How much would someone have to bet you to chug 500ml of wine? 5 dollars? Lets go with 5 for now.
For an investment of 200K to be worth it it would have to be worth at least 40000 micromorts.
If I was certain that my method of death would preserve the brain and thus had the full million micromorts to play with then odds of 4% that the procedure would work would be just, just good enough to make it vaguely reasonable.
Also you perform a few actions every day that could see you dying in a manner that involves your brain being destroyed or damaged too significantly for cryonics to help much.
We’re not starting from the full million, accident, fire, bodyloss, alzheimer’s, too-slow freezing, people ignoring the advanced directive about what’s to be done with your head etc eats up a big chunk of the probability space.
Lets say there’s a 50⁄50 chance, now it needs a procedure that’s 8% successful to be reasonable. Optimistic people like to say around 5%, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s bellow 1% or even 0.1% or if it could turn out once they figure out how to actually do it that most current freezing methods are unsuitable and lead to a husk vaguely like you with most of it’s memories mangled.
People value their lives but most don’t value their lives above everything else in the universe and would prefer to give their grandkids a college fund rather than taking a long shot at immortality.
This is really an argument to have with those who advocate signing up. But as it’s directed to me, I’ll point out one factor that needs to be included in that calculation.
What’s the size of a micromort?
A millionth of an ordinary lifetime, or a millionth of the lifetime one might have if cryonics pays off? Given commensurate advances in medicine generally, if you get revived, you might expect a much longer lifespan.
BTW, it would take a lot more than $5 to persuade me to drink a gratuitous half litre of wine. For me, that amount would be close to throwing up in the street and having the following morning wiped out recovering from the hangover. I’ve done that a few times in the past, but only enough to know better.
Some do prefer that, some sign up for cryo, some can afford both, some neither, and some do completely different things with their resources. People are different and there’s no need for everyone to do the same thing.
For that we’d have to get into QALY’s which is tough since we can’t make any kind of reasonable estimates for how many QALY’s someone would gain (perhaps future government decides to deal with a population crisis by setting maximum year limits).
Micromorts aren’t perfect but do make it possible to compare because 1 micromort suffered today can be used to judge cash value something is worth. If you’d accept a minimum of $10,000 to perform a 100 micromort task today(making you quite a bit more cautious than average) that still reduces your chances of immortality even if you’re signed up for cryonics which allows you to do some kind of cost/reward tradeoff calculations.
That’s assuming you’d otherwise die with enough money to pay for it, and neglecting fees that need to be paid while alive. “Life insurance” doesn’t solve this, you still need to pay for it.
Many employers provide life insurance. I’ve always thought that was kind of weird (but then, all of life insurance is weird; it’s more properly “death insurance” anyhow) but it’s a think. My current employer provides (at no cost to me) a life insurance policy sufficient to pay for cryonics. It would currently be given charitably—I have no dependents and my family is reasonably well off—but I’ve considered changing that.
That doesn’t change the situation much, if you can sell it (or get higher pay for refusing it). If you somehow can’t extract value from it (doubtful unless there are laws against selling), then it’s relevant.
I haven’t investigated selling it, but up to a certain multiple of my annual salary it’s included in my benefits and there is no value in setting it lower than that value; I wouldn’t get any extra money.
This is a fairly standard benefit from tech companies (and others that have good benefits packages in the US), apparently. It feels odd but it’s been like this at the last few companies I worked for, differing only in the insurance provider whose policy is used and the actual limit before you’d need to pay extra.
I just looked it up, and apparently reselling life insurance is so popular it has its own word: viatical. I expect you’d get reasonably close to fair value for it, and if you wouldn’t pay fair value for it, you probably should be willing to accept fair value for it.
Although I’m not entirely clear if you can resell life insurance bought by an employer.
No that one in a billion was meant to be illustrative, not a real estimate of probability. But honestly even if you lower that 5% probability by only 1 or 2 orders of magnitude the proposition already becomes very dubious.
Don’t forget that you can also extend your life by spending that money some other way. I think the singularity will probably happen somewhere between 2040 and 2060. So when I’m between 58 and 78 years old. This means I have a good chance to make it even without cryonics. Instead of taking that extra life insurance to pay for cryonics, I could for example also decide to work a few hours a week less, and spend that time on exercise. Not only would that be more enjoyable, it would also probably do more for my chances to reach the singularity.
If you’re significantly older now, that particular math may change. But cryonics is still a long shot, and spending so much money still means a significant hit in quality of life.
I’m very curious why you think 5% is a realistic estimate of the probability of cryonics working (actually on the probability of cryonics working for you personally. So some of that probability will have to be spent on you not dying in a way that makes cryonics impossible, or on the cryonics company not going bust, or on there being no unexpected legal obstacles, etc). If you want to sell me on cryonics, this is what you will have to sell me on.
I don’t have a particular opinion on that. It’s just the sort of figure I’ve seen from people in favour of cryo — that is the chance they are betting on, not a lottery jackpot. I am not signed up and am not planning to, despite having a sufficient pile of money. At the same time, I don’t think the whole cryo movement is misguided either. It’s an idea that should be pursued by those with the motivation to do so, both by freezing bodies now and researching preservation and revival methods.
I also don’t have a particular opinion about how soon a singularity may happen (or a global extinction). For those who think that one of those is very likely to happen before they need cryo, cryo is also not a good bet. At least, they might want to keep their cryo funding in a more liquid form than an insurance policy.
Yes, those are real concerns that anyone contemplating signing up, or urging other people to, has to assess.