I think if you have timelines of 3-7 years at 10%, and alignment research where it is, it’s hard to imagine what kinds of alignment improvements we would get that also facilitate pivotal acts by individual actors way in front. So global coordination starting as soon as possible is still a necessary precondition to avoiding doom, even if we get lucky and have 15 years.
I think if you have timelines of 3-7 years at 10%, and alignment research where it is, it’s hard to imagine what kinds of alignment improvements we would get that also facilitate pivotal acts by individual actors way in front. So global coordination starting as soon as possible is still a necessary precondition to avoiding doom, even if we get lucky and have 15 years.