When you’re in takeoff, it doesn’t really matter whether people sprint to AGI or not, because either way we know lots of teams will eventually get there. We don’t have good reason to believe that the capability is likely to be restricted to one group, especially given that they don’t seem to be using any secret sauce. We also don’t seem at all likely to be within the sort-of alignment regime where a pivotal act isn’t basically guaranteed to kill everyone.
All the organizations that think about AGI know the situation, or will figure it out quickly, whether or not the EAs say something. If we do nothing, they will not go through the logic of “what reward do I give it” until right before they hit run. That is, unless you do the public advocacy first.
When you’re in takeoff, it doesn’t really matter whether people sprint to AGI or not, because either way we know lots of teams will eventually get there. We don’t have good reason to believe that the capability is likely to be restricted to one group, especially given that they don’t seem to be using any secret sauce. We also don’t seem at all likely to be within the sort-of alignment regime where a pivotal act isn’t basically guaranteed to kill everyone.
All the organizations that think about AGI know the situation, or will figure it out quickly, whether or not the EAs say something. If we do nothing, they will not go through the logic of “what reward do I give it” until right before they hit run. That is, unless you do the public advocacy first.