This post is mainly targeted at people capable of forming a strong enough inside view to get them above >30% without requiring a moving average of experts which may take months to update (since it’s a popular question).
For everyone else, I don’t think you should update much on this except vis a vis the number of other people who agree.
Actually, the Metaculus community prediction has a recency bias: > approximately sqrt(n) new predictions need to happen in order to substantially change the Community Prediction on a question that already has n players predicting.
In this case, n=298, the prediction should change substantially after sqrt(n)=18 new predictions (usually it takes up to a few days). Over the past week, there were almost this many predictions and the AGI community median has shifted 2043 → 2039, and the 30th percentile is 8 years.
This post is mainly targeted at people capable of forming a strong enough inside view to get them above >30% without requiring a moving average of experts which may take months to update (since it’s a popular question).
For everyone else, I don’t think you should update much on this except vis a vis the number of other people who agree.
Actually, the Metaculus community prediction has a recency bias:
> approximately sqrt(n) new predictions need to happen in order to substantially change the Community Prediction on a question that already has n players predicting.
In this case, n=298, the prediction should change substantially after sqrt(n)=18 new predictions (usually it takes up to a few days). Over the past week, there were almost this many predictions and the AGI community median has shifted 2043 → 2039, and the 30th percentile is 8 years.