First, I mistitled the post, and as a result your response is very reasonable. This is less clearly evidence for “fast takeoff” and more clearly evidence for “fast timelines”.
In terms of why, the different behaviors captured in the papers constitute a large part of what you’d need to implement something like AlphaGo in a real-world environment. Will stitching them together work immediately? Almost certainly not. Will it work given not-that-much creative iteration, say over 5 years of parallel research? It seems not unlikely, I’d give it >30%.
First, I mistitled the post, and as a result your response is very reasonable. This is less clearly evidence for “fast takeoff” and more clearly evidence for “fast timelines”.
In terms of why, the different behaviors captured in the papers constitute a large part of what you’d need to implement something like AlphaGo in a real-world environment. Will stitching them together work immediately? Almost certainly not. Will it work given not-that-much creative iteration, say over 5 years of parallel research? It seems not unlikely, I’d give it >30%.
You can edit the post title.
Done! Do you think it should be edited further?
No, this seems to capture it. No need to make it complicated.