Other than the printing press, do you have other members of the reference class you are constructing, where outside holistic experts are better at predicting the consequences of a new invention than the inventors themselves?
Why though? How does understanding the physics that makes nukes work help someone understand their implications? Game theory seems a much better background than physics to predict the future in this case. For example, the idea of Mutually assured destruction as a civilizing force was first proposed first by Wilkie Collins, an English novelist, and playwright.
Other than the printing press, do you have other members of the reference class you are constructing, where outside holistic experts are better at predicting the consequences of a new invention than the inventors themselves?
Every other important technological breakthrough. The Internet and nuclear weapons are specific examples if you want any.
Are you saying that outside experts were better at understanding potential consequences in these cases? I have trouble believing it.
Why though? How does understanding the physics that makes nukes work help someone understand their implications? Game theory seems a much better background than physics to predict the future in this case. For example, the idea of Mutually assured destruction as a civilizing force was first proposed first by Wilkie Collins, an English novelist, and playwright.