I’ve heard two theories, and (maybe) created another.
One is that there isn’t one in our light cone. Arguments like dissolving the fermi paradox (name at least somewhat wrong) and the frequency of nova and supernova events sterilizing planets that aren’t on the galactic rim are considered pretty strong, I think.
The one I’ve heard is the dark forest hypothesis. In that hypothesis, an advanced culture doesn’t send out signals or probes to be found. Instead it hides, to prevent or delay other potentially hostile civilizations (or AGIs) from finding it. This is somewhat compatible with aligned superintelligences that serve their civilizations desires. Adding to the plausibility of this hypothesis is the idea that an advanced culture might not really be interested in colonizing the galaxy. We or they might prefer to mostly live in simulation, possibly with a sped-up subjective timeline. Moving away from that would be abandoning most of your civilization for very long subjective times, with the lightspeed delays. And it might be forbidden as dangerous, by potentially leading unknown hostiles back to your civilizations home world.
The last, my own (AFAIK) is that they are here. They are aligned to their civilization and not hostile to ours. They are monitoring our attempts to break out of our earthly chrysalis by creating our own AGI. If it is unaligned, they will destroy it before it becomes a threat. They have not revealed themselves yet based on some variant of the Prime Directive, or else the Dark Forest hypothesis- don’t go showing yourself and leading hostiles home. In this scenario, I suppose we’re also being staked out by a resource-stingy hostile AGI, hoping that some friendly civilization reveals itself by contacting us or dramatically intervening.
Obviously I haven’t thought this all the way through, but there are some possibilities for you.
Anonymous #6 asks:
There probably isn’t one in our past light cone, or we’d have noticed them by now.
I’ve heard two theories, and (maybe) created another.
One is that there isn’t one in our light cone. Arguments like dissolving the fermi paradox (name at least somewhat wrong) and the frequency of nova and supernova events sterilizing planets that aren’t on the galactic rim are considered pretty strong, I think.
The one I’ve heard is the dark forest hypothesis. In that hypothesis, an advanced culture doesn’t send out signals or probes to be found. Instead it hides, to prevent or delay other potentially hostile civilizations (or AGIs) from finding it. This is somewhat compatible with aligned superintelligences that serve their civilizations desires. Adding to the plausibility of this hypothesis is the idea that an advanced culture might not really be interested in colonizing the galaxy. We or they might prefer to mostly live in simulation, possibly with a sped-up subjective timeline. Moving away from that would be abandoning most of your civilization for very long subjective times, with the lightspeed delays. And it might be forbidden as dangerous, by potentially leading unknown hostiles back to your civilizations home world.
The last, my own (AFAIK) is that they are here. They are aligned to their civilization and not hostile to ours. They are monitoring our attempts to break out of our earthly chrysalis by creating our own AGI. If it is unaligned, they will destroy it before it becomes a threat. They have not revealed themselves yet based on some variant of the Prime Directive, or else the Dark Forest hypothesis- don’t go showing yourself and leading hostiles home. In this scenario, I suppose we’re also being staked out by a resource-stingy hostile AGI, hoping that some friendly civilization reveals itself by contacting us or dramatically intervening.
Obviously I haven’t thought this all the way through, but there are some possibilities for you.