Ironically, Eliezer’s mistake actually more strongly makes his key point. The demand for humility Eliezer was writing about stemmed from the belief that even a very good reasoner oughtn’t be able to outperform “the experts.” And yet, here we have a mistaken reasoner outperforming “the experts” (at least, outperforming the hawkish experts...
One person outperforming the experts once, is not very significant..it’s all about reliability.
One person outperforming the experts once, is not very significant..it’s all about reliability.