My sense is my predictions about Anthropic have also not been pessimistic enough, though we have not yet seen most of the evidence. Maybe a good time to make bets.
I kinda don’t want to litigate it right now, but, I was thinking “I can think of one particular Anthropic prediction Habryka made that seemed false and overly pessimistic to me”, which doesn’t mean I think you’re overall uncalibrated about Anthropic, and/or not pessimistic enough.
And (I think Habryka got this but for benefit of others), a major point of my original comment was not just “you might be overly paranoid/pessimistic in some cases”, but, ambiguity about how paranoid/pessimistic is appropriate to be results in some kind of confusing, miasmic social-epistemic process (where like maybe you are exactly calibrated on how pessimistic to be, but it comes across as too aggro to other people, who pushback). This can be bad whether you’re somewhat-too-pessimistic, somewhat-too-optimistic, or exactly calibrated.
My sense is my predictions about Anthropic have also not been pessimistic enough, though we have not yet seen most of the evidence. Maybe a good time to make bets.
I kinda don’t want to litigate it right now, but, I was thinking “I can think of one particular Anthropic prediction Habryka made that seemed false and overly pessimistic to me”, which doesn’t mean I think you’re overall uncalibrated about Anthropic, and/or not pessimistic enough.
And (I think Habryka got this but for benefit of others), a major point of my original comment was not just “you might be overly paranoid/pessimistic in some cases”, but, ambiguity about how paranoid/pessimistic is appropriate to be results in some kind of confusing, miasmic social-epistemic process (where like maybe you are exactly calibrated on how pessimistic to be, but it comes across as too aggro to other people, who pushback). This can be bad whether you’re somewhat-too-pessimistic, somewhat-too-optimistic, or exactly calibrated.