Did I understand the problem right? I understood the problem as “Build an algorithm which finds the best distribution of 13 dwarves in order to get maximum expected fort value”
I looked through the solutions of others and saw mostly insights from the data. Was I right to apply ML/optimization? I mean, no one else did anything similar and maybe I understood the problem wrong… (maybe the problem is to understand and explain how the game works or smth else)
The goal is to perform as well as possible on the stated task (in this case maximizing survival odds and fort value) - I’ll be posting a wrapup doc this evening where you’ll be able to see how well you did (both in comparison to King Urist’s existing strategy and in comparison to other players).
You can pursue this goal however you want—manual analysis, machine learning, psychoanalysis of the GM, ouija boards—scoring is based on how well you do on the task, not how you arrive at your answer.
Historically, though, ouija boards have not performed well, and the top performance has come from a mix of ‘looking for insights from the data’ and ‘blindly applying gradient descent models’.
Always glad to see new players, I hope you had fun!
Used gradient boosting as a surrogate model + genetic search
Miners sent 6
Smiths sent 2
Woodcutters sent 0
Farmers sent 1
Brewers sent 2
Warriors sent 1
Crafters sent 1
https://github.com/alex-ledovsky/my-notebooks/blob/master/Dwarves%20and%20Data%20Science.ipynb
Condition applied—Farmers + Brewers >= 3 (survivability = 99%)
Hi, guys! I’m kind of new here =)
Did I understand the problem right? I understood the problem as “Build an algorithm which finds the best distribution of 13 dwarves in order to get maximum expected fort value”
I looked through the solutions of others and saw mostly insights from the data. Was I right to apply ML/optimization? I mean, no one else did anything similar and maybe I understood the problem wrong… (maybe the problem is to understand and explain how the game works or smth else)
The goal is to perform as well as possible on the stated task (in this case maximizing survival odds and fort value) - I’ll be posting a wrapup doc this evening where you’ll be able to see how well you did (both in comparison to King Urist’s existing strategy and in comparison to other players).
You can pursue this goal however you want—manual analysis, machine learning, psychoanalysis of the GM, ouija boards—scoring is based on how well you do on the task, not how you arrive at your answer.
Historically, though, ouija boards have not performed well, and the top performance has come from a mix of ‘looking for insights from the data’ and ‘blindly applying gradient descent models’.
Always glad to see new players, I hope you had fun!