Stating subjective probabilities of outcomes before the event happens.
Examples:
(1) If you ask for people whether they will come to your meetup, instead of asking the binary Yes/No, ask them for their probability.
(2) Elon Musk reports that he feels it’s easier to make couragious decisions such as starting SpaceX and Tesla after he thought through the probabilities.
(4) Determining odds for bets via stating your probabilities before. Based on the post Even Odds a member of our dojo created a tool that implements the math.
Stating subjective probabilities of outcomes before the event happens.
Examples:
(1) If you ask for people whether they will come to your meetup, instead of asking the binary Yes/No, ask them for their probability.
(2) Elon Musk reports that he feels it’s easier to make couragious decisions such as starting SpaceX and Tesla after he thought through the probabilities.
(3) Prediction-based medicine
(4) Determining odds for bets via stating your probabilities before. Based on the post Even Odds a member of our dojo created a tool that implements the math.