I like this post and think it makes a lot of good points.
I think the failures of the community you list are mostly accurate, and best summed up by “if you have a thing to do, it’s important not to be incompetent, and there’s a lot of social pressure around here towards being incompetent.”
I’m probably not betting on Kernel, though I think it would be great for some people, because I’m taking a more diversified strategy. I’m doing intellectual & technical growth through my job & side projects, and personal growth through my family. I’m not relying on the rationalist community (or, indeed, an offshoot) to provide social closeness, intellectual stimulation, and productive impact on the world. I’m relying on living in a world-class city for that. It’s a lot lower risk than trusting a new founder.
If you want to hang out with competent people who will influence you for the better—a lot of them are right here in the Bay Area, you just haven’t met them yet.
Of course, the Bay Area is embedded in the US, and has its own culture, and is restricted by local laws. This is a lousy place to build a new civilization or a new culture. But it’s a great place to start a discrete, useful project. This is where the money is. It may not be like this forever, but it sure looks like Silicon Valley is a good launchpad. (I’d be interested in learning more about China as a rival in innovation, but that’s a big culture gap that I’m not well placed to cross just now.)
For example, the Berkeley AI Research group is...in Berkeley. These are the people who brought you Caffe. “Nobody in the town of Berkeley accomplishes anything useful” is just...not the case, at all.
I’m probably not betting on Kernel, though I think it would be great for some people, because I’m taking a more diversified strategy. I’m doing intellectual & technical growth through my job & side projects, and personal growth through my family. I’m not relying on the rationalist community (or, indeed, an offshoot) to provide social closeness, intellectual stimulation, and productive impact on the world. I’m relying on living in a world-class city for that. It’s a lot lower risk than trusting a new founder.
If you want to hang out with competent people who will influence you for the better—a lot of them are right here in the Bay Area, you just haven’t met them yet.
The information that would have largely addressed these points never made it into the final essay, partially on structure, partially because you don’t always know exactly which models people are already working with.
The way it looks from here is that Berkeley works pretty well for four niches:
people with six-figure tech jobs
people who run or prefer to work for VC backed startups
people with an not-for-profit cause that greatly benefits from face to face meeting with the above two groups (e.g. EA stuff, X-risk work)
people who are the financial dependants of the above three groups
Everyone else is basically only there because their friends are there or they never actually bothered to run the numbers before deciding to relocate.
I’m probably not betting on Kernel, though I think it would be great for some people, because I’m taking a more diversified strategy.
A more diversified strategy for you, sure, but as far as diversified strategies go for groups, if those groups contain people who aren’t in the four niches listed, they are not best served by being in Berkeley.
It seems that the implication is that moving here would be putting all your eggs in a basket labelled “Kernel”. It isn’t. This location was picked because it had index-fund-like qualities. At the time of it’s formal creation, it was the only project from the bunch of non-Berkeley ones that was set on a location that wouldn’t require everyone who moved there to pack up and go home in the event of failure.
Of all the locations in the UK in terms of career paths and general prosperity, Manchester is firmly in second place.
Of all the locations that still have affordable housing, Manchester is undeniably number one.
the Berkeley AI Research group is...in Berkeley. These are the people who brought you Caffe. “Nobody in the town of Berkeley accomplishes anything useful” is just...not the case, at all.
That may have been the impression some people got of what I was saying, but I would be worth highlighting what I actually said in the (admittedly very long) essay:
For those of us on the outside, we are now dealing with the fact that our local communities were hollowed for nothing. That the mission, the instrumental craft could have been years further along by now had Berkeley not redirected people’s talents towards other aims.
I won’t deny there is important work being done in Berkeley, I’d even go as far to say there are some organizations such as MIRI that belong there. My claim, similar to Zvi’s, is that most individuals and rationalist-aligned organizations do not benefit from that location choice.
There also seems to be a massive crux/blindspot on what people seem to think the instrumental craft is. It seems I was reading between the lines a little differently to most but I don’t think there is any part of the Sequences that implied developing instrumental craft meant “become a programmer and brute force your way through life problems by throwing money at them” and teaching others to do the same. Granted, it satisfices most things and allows you to deal with most problems while only posessing a very narrow set of skills, but this is only one system of Systemized Winning, and there definitely should be more of them.
So, you’re right that the Bay is not a great place unless you are (or are in a domestic partnership with) someone in or adjacent to the tech industry. The truth is that my husband and I would probably have moved here even if the rationalist community was highly concentrated in some other location, because we do work in tech startups. That’s not true of people who moved to the Bay specifically for the community, and maybe they should move.
I wasn’t trying to put down Manchester as a city; I don’t know much about it, but I trust your judgment.
I’m unusual here, but I’m actually not that into rationalism in the sense of “the content of the Sequences”; I’m here for all the associated stuff that you’re not crazy about. (The company of smart people, who have a lot in common with me, who want to do experimental science/tech and/or set up non-mainstream living arrangements.) You might say I’m more of a Bay Arean than a rationalist at this point. Reasoning well is a useful skill, but I’m beginning to suspect I’m worse than average rather than better than average at being reasonable, so I’m naturally not going to think it’s a great idea for me to participate in a project to create a system of exceptional rationality.
I’d expect that if you’re different from me in these respects—not a techie or in love with Bay Area culture, but believe strongly that you can contribute to the “art of rationality”—then Kernel is potentially a good choice, and I really do hope it succeeds.
I like this post and think it makes a lot of good points.
I think the failures of the community you list are mostly accurate, and best summed up by “if you have a thing to do, it’s important not to be incompetent, and there’s a lot of social pressure around here towards being incompetent.”
I’m probably not betting on Kernel, though I think it would be great for some people, because I’m taking a more diversified strategy. I’m doing intellectual & technical growth through my job & side projects, and personal growth through my family. I’m not relying on the rationalist community (or, indeed, an offshoot) to provide social closeness, intellectual stimulation, and productive impact on the world. I’m relying on living in a world-class city for that. It’s a lot lower risk than trusting a new founder.
If you want to hang out with competent people who will influence you for the better—a lot of them are right here in the Bay Area, you just haven’t met them yet.
Of course, the Bay Area is embedded in the US, and has its own culture, and is restricted by local laws. This is a lousy place to build a new civilization or a new culture. But it’s a great place to start a discrete, useful project. This is where the money is. It may not be like this forever, but it sure looks like Silicon Valley is a good launchpad. (I’d be interested in learning more about China as a rival in innovation, but that’s a big culture gap that I’m not well placed to cross just now.)
For example, the Berkeley AI Research group is...in Berkeley. These are the people who brought you Caffe. “Nobody in the town of Berkeley accomplishes anything useful” is just...not the case, at all.
The information that would have largely addressed these points never made it into the final essay, partially on structure, partially because you don’t always know exactly which models people are already working with.
The way it looks from here is that Berkeley works pretty well for four niches:
people with six-figure tech jobs
people who run or prefer to work for VC backed startups
people with an not-for-profit cause that greatly benefits from face to face meeting with the above two groups (e.g. EA stuff, X-risk work)
people who are the financial dependants of the above three groups
Everyone else is basically only there because their friends are there or they never actually bothered to run the numbers before deciding to relocate.
A more diversified strategy for you, sure, but as far as diversified strategies go for groups, if those groups contain people who aren’t in the four niches listed, they are not best served by being in Berkeley.
It seems that the implication is that moving here would be putting all your eggs in a basket labelled “Kernel”. It isn’t. This location was picked because it had index-fund-like qualities. At the time of it’s formal creation, it was the only project from the bunch of non-Berkeley ones that was set on a location that wouldn’t require everyone who moved there to pack up and go home in the event of failure.
Of all the locations in the UK in terms of career paths and general prosperity, Manchester is firmly in second place.
Of all the locations that still have affordable housing, Manchester is undeniably number one.
That may have been the impression some people got of what I was saying, but I would be worth highlighting what I actually said in the (admittedly very long) essay:
There also seems to be a massive crux/blindspot on what people seem to think the instrumental craft is. It seems I was reading between the lines a little differently to most but I don’t think there is any part of the Sequences that implied developing instrumental craft meant “become a programmer and brute force your way through life problems by throwing money at them” and teaching others to do the same. Granted, it satisfices most things and allows you to deal with most problems while only posessing a very narrow set of skills, but this is only one system of Systemized Winning, and there definitely should be more of them.
So, you’re right that the Bay is not a great place unless you are (or are in a domestic partnership with) someone in or adjacent to the tech industry. The truth is that my husband and I would probably have moved here even if the rationalist community was highly concentrated in some other location, because we do work in tech startups. That’s not true of people who moved to the Bay specifically for the community, and maybe they should move.
I wasn’t trying to put down Manchester as a city; I don’t know much about it, but I trust your judgment.
I’m unusual here, but I’m actually not that into rationalism in the sense of “the content of the Sequences”; I’m here for all the associated stuff that you’re not crazy about. (The company of smart people, who have a lot in common with me, who want to do experimental science/tech and/or set up non-mainstream living arrangements.) You might say I’m more of a Bay Arean than a rationalist at this point. Reasoning well is a useful skill, but I’m beginning to suspect I’m worse than average rather than better than average at being reasonable, so I’m naturally not going to think it’s a great idea for me to participate in a project to create a system of exceptional rationality.
I’d expect that if you’re different from me in these respects—not a techie or in love with Bay Area culture, but believe strongly that you can contribute to the “art of rationality”—then Kernel is potentially a good choice, and I really do hope it succeeds.