Shouldn’t you just not let the players bet in their own markets? And even if they can, assuming the currency in the markets is only useful in the game (even if only for betting), I think it’s not that helpful to bet your own market down (as it only gets resolved once you’re out of the game).
Each player has certain information on the distribution because they know their own role. The game would become a mixed game that depends on how much you care about the market payout vs winning, like mafia members would have an incentive to throw if they cared more about the money.
I think this would be tricky to balance. The spectator version can mostly use existing rules (such as mafia members knowing for certain who the other members are). This also means that of you do figure out the balance, the game would be more novel and interesting
Shouldn’t you just not let the players bet in their own markets? And even if they can, assuming the currency in the markets is only useful in the game (even if only for betting), I think it’s not that helpful to bet your own market down (as it only gets resolved once you’re out of the game).
Each player has certain information on the distribution because they know their own role. The game would become a mixed game that depends on how much you care about the market payout vs winning, like mafia members would have an incentive to throw if they cared more about the money. I think this would be tricky to balance. The spectator version can mostly use existing rules (such as mafia members knowing for certain who the other members are). This also means that of you do figure out the balance, the game would be more novel and interesting
Definitely seems tricky with real money prediction markets, rather than the play money I assume in second sentence
yes, I’d recommend play money isolated to the game itself