Oh, and also, to clarify a point: I agree that the big labs will get to AGI well before open-source.
Maybe 1-4 years sooner is my guess. But my point is that, once we get there we have use that window carefully. We need to prove to the world that dangerous technology is coming, and we need to start taking preventative measures against catastrophe while we have that window to act.
Also, I expect that there will be a very low rate of bad actors. Something well under 1% of people who have the capacity to download and run an open-weights model. Just as I don’t suspect most school students of becoming school shooters. It’s just that I see ways for very bad things to come from even small numbers of poorly resourced bad actors equipped with powerful AI.
Oh, and also, to clarify a point: I agree that the big labs will get to AGI well before open-source.
Maybe 1-4 years sooner is my guess. But my point is that, once we get there we have use that window carefully. We need to prove to the world that dangerous technology is coming, and we need to start taking preventative measures against catastrophe while we have that window to act.
Also, I expect that there will be a very low rate of bad actors. Something well under 1% of people who have the capacity to download and run an open-weights model. Just as I don’t suspect most school students of becoming school shooters. It’s just that I see ways for very bad things to come from even small numbers of poorly resourced bad actors equipped with powerful AI.