I totally agree we can be coherently uncertain about logical facts, like whether P=NP. FDT has bigger problems then that.
When writing this I tried actually doing the thing where you predict a distribution, and only 21% of LessWrong users were persuaded they might be imaginary and being imagined by me, which is pretty low accuracy considering they were in fact imaginary and being imagined by me. Insisting that the experience of qualia can’t be doubted did come up a few times, but not as aggressively as you’re pushing it here. I tried to cover it in the “highly detailed internal subjective experience” counterargument, and in my introduction, but I could have been stronger on that.
I agree that the same argument on philosophers or average people would be much less successful even then that, but that’s a fact about them, not about the theory.
Does it. The post you linked does nothing to support that claim, and I don’t think you’ve presented any actual problem which definitively wouldn’t be solved by logical counterfactuals. (Would this problem also apply to real people killing terrorists, instead of giving in to their demands? Because zero percent of the people obeying FDT in that regard are doing so because they think they might not be real.) This post is actually about TDT, but it’s unclear to me why the ideas couldn’t be transferred.
I also note that 100% of responses in this thread, so far, appear to assume that your ghosts would need to have qualia in order for the argument to make sense. I think your predictions were bad. I think you should stop doing that, and concentrate on the object-level ideas.
I totally agree we can be coherently uncertain about logical facts, like whether P=NP. FDT has bigger problems then that.
When writing this I tried actually doing the thing where you predict a distribution, and only 21% of LessWrong users were persuaded they might be imaginary and being imagined by me, which is pretty low accuracy considering they were in fact imaginary and being imagined by me. Insisting that the experience of qualia can’t be doubted did come up a few times, but not as aggressively as you’re pushing it here. I tried to cover it in the “highly detailed internal subjective experience” counterargument, and in my introduction, but I could have been stronger on that.
I agree that the same argument on philosophers or average people would be much less successful even then that, but that’s a fact about them, not about the theory.
>FDT has bigger problems then that.
Does it. The post you linked does nothing to support that claim, and I don’t think you’ve presented any actual problem which definitively wouldn’t be solved by logical counterfactuals. (Would this problem also apply to real people killing terrorists, instead of giving in to their demands? Because zero percent of the people obeying FDT in that regard are doing so because they think they might not be real.) This post is actually about TDT, but it’s unclear to me why the ideas couldn’t be transferred.
I also note that 100% of responses in this thread, so far, appear to assume that your ghosts would need to have qualia in order for the argument to make sense. I think your predictions were bad. I think you should stop doing that, and concentrate on the object-level ideas.