I think the only way that it would be socially responsible for me to travel, is if I knew with very high confidence that I wasn’t carrying the virus*. And the only way that I can have that confidence is if I have already caught it, recovered, and now have antibodies against the virus.
I didn’t read all of your post, but I want to mention that people do buy tests (I think like a couple hundred dollars per test but maybe less), and I expect if you looked into it you could find some. I think I know someone who bought some, I know the Joe Rogan podcast gives its guests a test before they come on the show, and also I think that if you know the right people you can just make tests. I mean, it’s probably illegal because everything is illegal, but the government primarily finds out when labs try to do mass testing and publish results, so you can probably get a bunch for personal use and nobody will notice.
Then you can take a flight, go to a hotel for one night, use a test, and probably find out pretty quickly (I’d guess either within an hour or within a day but I don’t know) whether you’re infected.
I expect this to cost more time and money, but if you’re able to take careful precautions in travel (such as those I listed here) I expect there’s a large probability that this would be better than getting the disease, especially with the unknown long-term effects and plausibility of a vaccine within 12 months.
Also, if anyone reading this has COVID tests to sell, or could make tests, please get in touch.
I would probably buy at least a few, so that I have them in reserve. That way (regardless of if I end up doing any travel) if I’m unavoidably in a situation where it seems like I might have been exposed, I can shorten my mandatory strict self isolation.
Then you can take a flight, go to a hotel for one night, use a test, and probably find out pretty quickly (I’d guess either within an hour or within a day but I don’t know) whether you’re infected.
I’m going to look into myself, if not, but does anyone happen to know how soon after exposure a test will show positive for COVID?
It also matters if (or rather, how much) the false positives correlate. If they are close to being independent samples, then you could take two tests or more tests to increase your confidence.
But if false positive are more likely for asymptomatic people, then the tests must be at least somewhat correlated.
I saw guidelines along the lines of “You can stop self-quarantining if you had two negative tests taken more than 24hrs apart, with first test at least 3 days after an exposure”. I do not know where this came from, but I saw it from an org that I would expect to be fairly sane in making evidence-based decisions.
I am a bit confused what kind of test Ben is referring to here. If this is about smear tests, RKI says that it may be possible to show evidence for an infection about 2-3 days before symptoms begin. However, medical professionals warn that it’s not trivial to take the smear test and that therefore laypeople conclusions may lead to wrong negatives. If it’s about blood antibody tests, there may be false positives because antibodies may those formed against other corona virus infections.
We also don’t yet know at what point during the course of illness a test becomes positive… you will get a false negative test result [on a swab test] 100% of the time on the day you are exposed to the virus. (There are so few viral particles in your nose or saliva so soon after infection that the test cannot detect them.)… About 40% of the time if you are tested four days after exposure to the virus
So this sounds like, with a smear or swab or saliva test, you’d want to wait up to 4 days after potential exposure, and a false negative remains possible.
I believe I’ve seen elsewhere that the saliva test is comparable to a swab in accuracy, but is more foolproof (because you don’t have to take a sample from your throat).
I didn’t read all of your post, but I want to mention that people do buy tests (I think like a couple hundred dollars per test but maybe less), and I expect if you looked into it you could find some. I think I know someone who bought some, I know the Joe Rogan podcast gives its guests a test before they come on the show, and also I think that if you know the right people you can just make tests. I mean, it’s probably illegal because everything is illegal, but the government primarily finds out when labs try to do mass testing and publish results, so you can probably get a bunch for personal use and nobody will notice.
Then you can take a flight, go to a hotel for one night, use a test, and probably find out pretty quickly (I’d guess either within an hour or within a day but I don’t know) whether you’re infected.
I expect this to cost more time and money, but if you’re able to take careful precautions in travel (such as those I listed here) I expect there’s a large probability that this would be better than getting the disease, especially with the unknown long-term effects and plausibility of a vaccine within 12 months.
This is a helpful answer. Thanks.
You’re welcome.
Also, if anyone reading this has COVID tests to sell, or could make tests, please get in touch.
I would probably buy at least a few, so that I have them in reserve. That way (regardless of if I end up doing any travel) if I’m unavoidably in a situation where it seems like I might have been exposed, I can shorten my mandatory strict self isolation.
I’m going to look into myself, if not, but does anyone happen to know how soon after exposure a test will show positive for COVID?
Another issue to consider is that the test could have a high false negative rate (I have seen reports as high as 15% - e.g. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/838794281/study-raises-questions-about-false-negatives-from-quick-covid-19-test), and it appears that false positives are more likely for asymptomatic people.
Hm. That seems pretty relevant.
It also matters if (or rather, how much) the false positives correlate. If they are close to being independent samples, then you could take two tests or more tests to increase your confidence.
But if false positive are more likely for asymptomatic people, then the tests must be at least somewhat correlated.
I saw guidelines along the lines of “You can stop self-quarantining if you had two negative tests taken more than 24hrs apart, with first test at least 3 days after an exposure”. I do not know where this came from, but I saw it from an org that I would expect to be fairly sane in making evidence-based decisions.
I am a bit confused what kind of test Ben is referring to here. If this is about smear tests, RKI says that it may be possible to show evidence for an infection about 2-3 days before symptoms begin. However, medical professionals warn that it’s not trivial to take the smear test and that therefore laypeople conclusions may lead to wrong negatives. If it’s about blood antibody tests, there may be false positives because antibodies may those formed against other corona virus infections.
According to Harvard //www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus
So this sounds like, with a smear or swab or saliva test, you’d want to wait up to 4 days after potential exposure, and a false negative remains possible.
I believe I’ve seen elsewhere that the saliva test is comparable to a swab in accuracy, but is more foolproof (because you don’t have to take a sample from your throat).