Another way to put this: I expect a large chance of a small update upwards, and a small chance of a large update downwards. This still conserves expected evidence.
On net, I expect to end up back where I started, EVEN though there’s a higher chance I’ll get evidence confirming my view.
That makes perfect sense. And you should probably make BOTH halves of the statement: I expect to increase my estimate to 90% or decrease it to 20%.
Another way to put this: I expect a large chance of a small update upwards, and a small chance of a large update downwards. This still conserves expected evidence.
On net, I expect to end up back where I started, EVEN though there’s a higher chance I’ll get evidence confirming my view.