Thank you—this is an important distinction. Are we talking about how something feels, or about probability estimates? I’d argue the error is in using numbers and probability notation to describe feelings of confidence that you haven’t actually tried to be rational about.
The topic of illegible beliefs (related to aliefs), and how to apply math to them is virtually unexplored.
Thank you—this is an important distinction. Are we talking about how something feels, or about probability estimates? I’d argue the error is in using numbers and probability notation to describe feelings of confidence that you haven’t actually tried to be rational about.
The topic of illegible beliefs (related to aliefs), and how to apply math to them is virtually unexplored.
In practice what I’m trying to do with practices like calibration training is determine the latter from the former.