I will note that the curves here are non-intuitive, for example I suspect that 2 weeks down is less than 2x as bad as 1 week down, because the first week is enough to mess everyone’s “check LessWrong” habit and cause long-term losses to LWers contributions, and so most of the value is already lost before the 2nd week down.
(Note: I don’t know if I stand by the 1 vs 2 weeks in particular, those are example numbers.)
If someone loses a LessWrong habit, the impact could be positive or negative, depending on what they contributed to LessWrong, and what they replace the habit with. Most communities contain some fraction of members who would be better placed elsewhere, not because the community isn’t providing value, but because it’s now providing less value, or because new opportunities have arisen. Those people are disproportionately likely to drift away during a disruption. People for whom LessWrong is the best marginal use of their time will stick with LessWrong.
Various non-essential services in the US are unavailable during Thanksgiving and Christmas, and this seems to be viewed positively overall. Overall, I don’t know what direction the habit-breaking effect would go. For the 2020 Petrov Day exercise I’d expect it to be small and net positive.
I will note that the curves here are non-intuitive, for example I suspect that 2 weeks down is less than 2x as bad as 1 week down, because the first week is enough to mess everyone’s “check LessWrong” habit and cause long-term losses to LWers contributions, and so most of the value is already lost before the 2nd week down.
(Note: I don’t know if I stand by the 1 vs 2 weeks in particular, those are example numbers.)
If someone loses a LessWrong habit, the impact could be positive or negative, depending on what they contributed to LessWrong, and what they replace the habit with. Most communities contain some fraction of members who would be better placed elsewhere, not because the community isn’t providing value, but because it’s now providing less value, or because new opportunities have arisen. Those people are disproportionately likely to drift away during a disruption. People for whom LessWrong is the best marginal use of their time will stick with LessWrong.
Relevant study: The Benefits of Forced Experimentation: Striking Evidence from the London Underground Network
Various non-essential services in the US are unavailable during Thanksgiving and Christmas, and this seems to be viewed positively overall. Overall, I don’t know what direction the habit-breaking effect would go. For the 2020 Petrov Day exercise I’d expect it to be small and net positive.