This seems circular :-) (I should use an inside view of your sequence to update the view that I shouldn’t give too much weight to my inside view of your sequence...?) But I’ll check out your sequence.
This seems circular :-) (I should use an inside view of your sequence to update the view that I shouldn’t give too much weight to my inside view of your sequence...?)
That isn’t circular. Choosing to limit your use of reasoning to a specific subset of valid reasoning (the assertion of a reference class that you have selected and deference to analogies thereto—‘outside view’) is a quirk of your own psychology, not a fact about what reasoning is valid or circular. You don’t have to believe reasoning that isn’t based on the outside view but this is very different from that reasoning being circular. Using arguments that will not convince the particular audience is futile, not fallacious.
The above holds regardless of whether your particular usage of outside view reasoning is sound with respect to the subject discussed in this context. “Circular” is an incorrect description even if Eliezer is wrong.
This seems circular :-) (I should use an inside view of your sequence to update the view that I shouldn’t give too much weight to my inside view of your sequence...?) But I’ll check out your sequence.
That isn’t circular. Choosing to limit your use of reasoning to a specific subset of valid reasoning (the assertion of a reference class that you have selected and deference to analogies thereto—‘outside view’) is a quirk of your own psychology, not a fact about what reasoning is valid or circular. You don’t have to believe reasoning that isn’t based on the outside view but this is very different from that reasoning being circular. Using arguments that will not convince the particular audience is futile, not fallacious.
The above holds regardless of whether your particular usage of outside view reasoning is sound with respect to the subject discussed in this context. “Circular” is an incorrect description even if Eliezer is wrong.