I’d like you to drill down a bit on what you mean when you talk about these probabilities, because I think you may be glossing over the information that really answers your question.
It seems that there are at least three different reasons why people would say following a given career path leads to a low probability of a desired outcome.
The first is that the supplied probability information is giving an incomplete picture of the situation. If 0.001% of people attempting this path succeed and it just so happens that this 0.001% happen to be the only ones whose parents run multinational corporations, then the problem isn’t that “the probability of success is low,” the problem is that “the probability of success for you is zero.” If this is the case, just lose hope already.
The second possibility is that success only happens to 0.001% of the participants because there are only a discrete number of pots of gold and way too many people chasing rainbows. This only implies that the probability of a randomly selected individual, with no prior information, would be 0.001%. This does not imply that the probability of you finding a pot of gold is 0.001%, if you happen to know that you have some advantage or disadvantage relative to your peers. If you know what types of things you could be doing to increase your odds of finding a pot of gold, then do those things and ignore the naysayers. However, it sounds like the problem is that your field of choice involves either a lot of inherent uncertainty about what qualities lead to success, or a total glut of maximally-qualified peers, so this may not help or may not apply
The third possibility is that there really is a dominant effectively-random aspect to the situation, something which you literally cannot usefully engage with. I am honestly having a hard time thinking of things in the real world other than actual lotteries where this is strictly the case.
My point, in sum, is that talking about the probability of success can be misleading. It is often intentionally used to mislead people when making career choices—sayin “Your probability of making over $100k/yr with this degree is 10%!” when in reality your probability of making over $100k/yr is actually 80% if you went to an Ivy League school and 2% if you didn’t.
Right, yes, those factors definitely do affect people’s odds in my field. The facts that my parents aren’t major players and that I didn’t go to the right schools definitely hurts my chances. However, those aren’t the only determining factors. Many people who did go to the “right” schools have not succeeded and many people who did not, have.
One major factor, however, is my age. Some say that it doesn’t matter, that I’m still young, but the majority of people who succeed in this business get their first significant job in their 20s. Having just turned 30, I failed to achieve that milestone, which I would imagine lowers my chances significantly.
Supposedly, from what I’ve heard from multiple people in the business, if someone creates a great product, no matter who they are, they will be noticed, but I guess it’s the very odds that I’m even capable of creating a great product on par with my maximally-qualified peers that worries me. I’ve had some indications of ability (e.g. getting into one of the top grad schools), but constant rejection has made me question that. This is why reading about deliberate practice, as I mentioned above, has given me a smidgin of hope.
However, the third possibility (pure luck) is indeed true as to some extent well. There’s just no predicting what will “hit” and what won’t. And typically those things are sort of mindless or trendy or otherwise somehow seize the popular zeitgeist, and unfortunately I tend not to think in that way. Although I’m thinking of basically training myself to do so...
As a post on 80000hours said about entrepreneurship, it’s a game of poker, not roulette. In that case, I can’t say I’ve been dealt the best hand, but I can try to play it right.
Anyhow, those are the reasons I estimate that my personal chances—not just those of the general public—are about 1%. But who knows, they may be much lower.
I’d like you to drill down a bit on what you mean when you talk about these probabilities, because I think you may be glossing over the information that really answers your question.
It seems that there are at least three different reasons why people would say following a given career path leads to a low probability of a desired outcome.
The first is that the supplied probability information is giving an incomplete picture of the situation. If 0.001% of people attempting this path succeed and it just so happens that this 0.001% happen to be the only ones whose parents run multinational corporations, then the problem isn’t that “the probability of success is low,” the problem is that “the probability of success for you is zero.” If this is the case, just lose hope already.
The second possibility is that success only happens to 0.001% of the participants because there are only a discrete number of pots of gold and way too many people chasing rainbows. This only implies that the probability of a randomly selected individual, with no prior information, would be 0.001%. This does not imply that the probability of you finding a pot of gold is 0.001%, if you happen to know that you have some advantage or disadvantage relative to your peers. If you know what types of things you could be doing to increase your odds of finding a pot of gold, then do those things and ignore the naysayers. However, it sounds like the problem is that your field of choice involves either a lot of inherent uncertainty about what qualities lead to success, or a total glut of maximally-qualified peers, so this may not help or may not apply
The third possibility is that there really is a dominant effectively-random aspect to the situation, something which you literally cannot usefully engage with. I am honestly having a hard time thinking of things in the real world other than actual lotteries where this is strictly the case.
My point, in sum, is that talking about the probability of success can be misleading. It is often intentionally used to mislead people when making career choices—sayin “Your probability of making over $100k/yr with this degree is 10%!” when in reality your probability of making over $100k/yr is actually 80% if you went to an Ivy League school and 2% if you didn’t.
Hope this helped in some way.
Right, yes, those factors definitely do affect people’s odds in my field. The facts that my parents aren’t major players and that I didn’t go to the right schools definitely hurts my chances. However, those aren’t the only determining factors. Many people who did go to the “right” schools have not succeeded and many people who did not, have.
One major factor, however, is my age. Some say that it doesn’t matter, that I’m still young, but the majority of people who succeed in this business get their first significant job in their 20s. Having just turned 30, I failed to achieve that milestone, which I would imagine lowers my chances significantly.
Supposedly, from what I’ve heard from multiple people in the business, if someone creates a great product, no matter who they are, they will be noticed, but I guess it’s the very odds that I’m even capable of creating a great product on par with my maximally-qualified peers that worries me. I’ve had some indications of ability (e.g. getting into one of the top grad schools), but constant rejection has made me question that. This is why reading about deliberate practice, as I mentioned above, has given me a smidgin of hope.
However, the third possibility (pure luck) is indeed true as to some extent well. There’s just no predicting what will “hit” and what won’t. And typically those things are sort of mindless or trendy or otherwise somehow seize the popular zeitgeist, and unfortunately I tend not to think in that way. Although I’m thinking of basically training myself to do so...
As a post on 80000hours said about entrepreneurship, it’s a game of poker, not roulette. In that case, I can’t say I’ve been dealt the best hand, but I can try to play it right.
Anyhow, those are the reasons I estimate that my personal chances—not just those of the general public—are about 1%. But who knows, they may be much lower.