Realistic threat modeling takes into account severity and duration, not just probability distribution. “had to request outside supplies” describes normal life for most of us, not a situation to prep for.
The thing that’s hard to model is the wide-scale systemic fragility in the modern world. Collapse could easily go deeper than expected, and then there’s no “outside supplies” to be had. It’s very (very!) hard to predict the specific edges of that scenario that would let your individual preparation be effective.
Realistic threat modeling takes into account severity and duration, not just probability distribution. “had to request outside supplies” describes normal life for most of us, not a situation to prep for.
The thing that’s hard to model is the wide-scale systemic fragility in the modern world. Collapse could easily go deeper than expected, and then there’s no “outside supplies” to be had. It’s very (very!) hard to predict the specific edges of that scenario that would let your individual preparation be effective.