So, as soon as it’s not 100% of people two-boxing having the two-boxing gene, but only 99.9%, you assume that you are in the 0.1%?
You didn’t specify any numbers. If the actual number was 99.9%, I’d consider that strong evidence against some of my beliefs about the relationship between decisions and genes. I was implicitly assuming a slightly lower number (like 70ish area), which would be somewhat more compatible, and in which case I would expect to be part of that 30% (with greater than 30% probability).
If the number was, in fact, 99.9%, I’d have to assume that genes in general are far more related to specifics of how we think than I currently think, and it might be enough to make this an actual Newcomb’s problem. The mechanism for the equivalency Newcomb would be that it creates a causal link from my reaching an opinion to my having a certain gene, in TDT terms. Gene would be another word for “brain state”, as I’ve said elsewhere on this post.
You didn’t specify any numbers. If the actual number was 99.9%, I’d consider that strong evidence against some of my beliefs about the relationship between decisions and genes. I was implicitly assuming a slightly lower number (like 70ish area), which would be somewhat more compatible, and in which case I would expect to be part of that 30% (with greater than 30% probability).
If the number was, in fact, 99.9%, I’d have to assume that genes in general are far more related to specifics of how we think than I currently think, and it might be enough to make this an actual Newcomb’s problem. The mechanism for the equivalency Newcomb would be that it creates a causal link from my reaching an opinion to my having a certain gene, in TDT terms. Gene would be another word for “brain state”, as I’ve said elsewhere on this post.