I think UDT reasoning would go like this (if translated to human terms). There are two types of mathematical multiverse, only one of which is real (i.e., logically consistent). You as a UDT agent gets to choose which one. In the first one, UDT agents one-box in this Genetic Newcomb Problem (GNP), so the only genes that statistically correlate with two-boxing are those that create certain kinds of compulsions overriding deliberate decision making, or for other decision procedures that are not logically correlated with UDT. In the second type of mathematical multiverse, UDT agents two-box in GNP, so the list of genes that correlate with two-boxing also includes genes for UDT.
Which type of multiverse is better? It depends on how Omega chooses which gene to look at, which is not specified in the OP. To match the Medical Newcomb Problem as closely as possible, let’s assume that in each world (e.g., Everett branch) of each multiverse, Omega picks a random gene look at (from a list of all human genes), and puts $1M in box B for you if you don’t have that gene. You live in a world where Omega happened to pick a gene that correlates with two-boxing. Under this assumption, the second type of multiverse is better because the number and distribution of boxes containing $1M is exactly the same in both multiverses, but in the second type of multiverse UDT agents get the additional $1K.
I presume that most LWers would one-box.
I think the reason we have an intuition that we should one-box in the GNP is that when we first read the story, we implicitly assume something else about what Omega is doing. For example, suppose instead of the above, in each world Omega looks at the most common gene correlated with two-boxing and puts $1M in box B if you don’t have that gene. If the gene for UDT is the most common such gene in the second multiverse (where UDT two-boxes), then the first multiverse is better because it has more boxes containing $1M, and UDT agents specifically all get $1M instead of $1K.
Omega picks a random gene look at (from a list of all human genes), and puts $1M in box B for you if you don’t have that gene
Why would Omega look at other human genes and not the two-boxing (correlated) gene(s) in any world?
Under this assumption, the second type of multiverse is better because the number and distribution of boxes containing $1M is exactly the same in both multiverses, but in the second type of multiverse UDT agents get the additional $1K.
Maybe I overlook something or did not describe the problem very well, but in the second multiverse UDT agents two-box, therefore UDT agents (probably) have the two-boxing gene and don’t get the $1M. In the first multiverse, UDT agents one-box, therefore UDT agents (probably) don’t have the one-boxing gene and get the $1M. So, the first multiverse seems to be better than the second.
I think the reason we have an intuition that we should one-box in the GNP is that when we first read the story, we implicitly assume something else about what Omega is doing. For example, suppose instead of the above, in each world Omega looks at the most common gene correlated with two-boxing and puts $1M in box B if you don’t have that gene.
Yes, this is more or less the scenario, I was trying to describe. Specifically, I wrote:
Omega has only looked at your DNA: If you don’t have the “two-boxing gene”, Omega puts $1M into box B, otherwise box B is empty.
So, it’s part of the GNP that Omega has looked at the “two-boxing gene” or (more realistically perhaps) the “most common gene correlated with two-boxing”.
Why would Omega look at other human genes and not the two-boxing (correlated) gene(s) in any world?
I was trying to create a version of the problem that corresponds more closely to MNP, where the fact that a single gene correlates with both chewing gum and abscess is a coincidence, not the result of some process looking for genes correlated with chewing gum, and giving people with those genes abscesses.
Maybe I overlook something or did not describe the problem very well, but in the second multiverse UDT agents two-box, therefore UDT agents (probably) have the two-boxing gene and don’t get the $1M. In the first multiverse, UDT agents one-box, therefore UDT agents (probably) don’t have the one-boxing gene and get the $1M. So, the first multiverse seems to be better than the second.
Do you see that assuming Omega worked the way I described, then the number and distribution of boxes containing $1M is exactly the same in the two multiverses, therefore the second multiverse is better?
So, it’s part of the GNP that Omega has looked at the “two-boxing gene” or (more realistically perhaps) the “most common gene correlated with two-boxing”.
I think this is what makes your version of GNP different from MNP, and why we have different intuitions about the two cases. If there is someone or something who looked the most common gene correlated with two-boxing (because it was the most common gene correlated with two-boxing, rather than due to a coincidence), then by changing whether you two-box, you can change whether other UDT agents two-box, and hence which gene is the most common gene correlated with two-boxing, and hence which gene Omega looked at, and hence who gets $1M in box B. In MNP, there is no corresponding process searching for genes correlated with gum chewing, so you can’t try to influence that process by choosing to not chew gum.
Do you see that assuming Omega worked the way I described, then the number and distribution of boxes containing $1M is exactly the same in the two multiverses, therefore the second multiverse is better?
Yes, I think I understand that now. But in your version the two-boxing gene practically does not cause the $1M to be in box B, because Omega mostly looks at random other genes. Would that even be a Newcomblike problem?
I think this is what makes your version of GNP different from MNP, and why we have different intuitions about the two cases. If there is someone or something who looked the most common gene correlated with two-boxing (because it was the most common gene correlated with two-boxing, rather than due to a coincidence), then by changing whether you two-box, you can change whether other UDT agents two-box, and hence which gene is the most common gene correlated with two-boxing, and hence which gene Omega looked at, and hence who gets $1M in box B.
In EY’s chewing gum MNP, it seems like CGTA causes both the throat abscess and influences people to chew gum. (See p.67 of the TDT paper ) (It gets much more complicated, if evolution has only produced a correlation between CGTA and another chewing gum gene.) The CGTA gene is always read, copied into RNA etc., ultimately leading to throat abscesses. (The rest of the DNA is used, too, but only determines the size of your nose etc.) In the GNP, the two-boxing gene is always read by Omega and translated into a number of dollars under box B. (Omega can look at the rest of the DNA, too, but does not care.) I don’t get the difference, yet, unfortunately.
In MNP, there is no corresponding process searching for genes correlated with gum chewing, so you can’t try to influence that process by choosing to not chew gum.
I don’t understand UDT, yet, but it seems to me that in the chewing gum MNP, you could not chew gum, thereby changing whether other UDT agents chew gum, and hence whether UDT agents’ genes contain CGTA. Unless you know that CGTA has no impact on how you ultimately resolve this problem, which is not stated in the problem description and which would make EDT also chew gum.
I think UDT reasoning would go like this (if translated to human terms). There are two types of mathematical multiverse, only one of which is real (i.e., logically consistent). You as a UDT agent gets to choose which one. In the first one, UDT agents one-box in this Genetic Newcomb Problem (GNP), so the only genes that statistically correlate with two-boxing are those that create certain kinds of compulsions overriding deliberate decision making, or for other decision procedures that are not logically correlated with UDT. In the second type of mathematical multiverse, UDT agents two-box in GNP, so the list of genes that correlate with two-boxing also includes genes for UDT.
Which type of multiverse is better? It depends on how Omega chooses which gene to look at, which is not specified in the OP. To match the Medical Newcomb Problem as closely as possible, let’s assume that in each world (e.g., Everett branch) of each multiverse, Omega picks a random gene look at (from a list of all human genes), and puts $1M in box B for you if you don’t have that gene. You live in a world where Omega happened to pick a gene that correlates with two-boxing. Under this assumption, the second type of multiverse is better because the number and distribution of boxes containing $1M is exactly the same in both multiverses, but in the second type of multiverse UDT agents get the additional $1K.
I think the reason we have an intuition that we should one-box in the GNP is that when we first read the story, we implicitly assume something else about what Omega is doing. For example, suppose instead of the above, in each world Omega looks at the most common gene correlated with two-boxing and puts $1M in box B if you don’t have that gene. If the gene for UDT is the most common such gene in the second multiverse (where UDT two-boxes), then the first multiverse is better because it has more boxes containing $1M, and UDT agents specifically all get $1M instead of $1K.
Thank you for this elaborate response!!
Why would Omega look at other human genes and not the two-boxing (correlated) gene(s) in any world?
Maybe I overlook something or did not describe the problem very well, but in the second multiverse UDT agents two-box, therefore UDT agents (probably) have the two-boxing gene and don’t get the $1M. In the first multiverse, UDT agents one-box, therefore UDT agents (probably) don’t have the one-boxing gene and get the $1M. So, the first multiverse seems to be better than the second.
Yes, this is more or less the scenario, I was trying to describe. Specifically, I wrote:
So, it’s part of the GNP that Omega has looked at the “two-boxing gene” or (more realistically perhaps) the “most common gene correlated with two-boxing”.
I was trying to create a version of the problem that corresponds more closely to MNP, where the fact that a single gene correlates with both chewing gum and abscess is a coincidence, not the result of some process looking for genes correlated with chewing gum, and giving people with those genes abscesses.
Do you see that assuming Omega worked the way I described, then the number and distribution of boxes containing $1M is exactly the same in the two multiverses, therefore the second multiverse is better?
I think this is what makes your version of GNP different from MNP, and why we have different intuitions about the two cases. If there is someone or something who looked the most common gene correlated with two-boxing (because it was the most common gene correlated with two-boxing, rather than due to a coincidence), then by changing whether you two-box, you can change whether other UDT agents two-box, and hence which gene is the most common gene correlated with two-boxing, and hence which gene Omega looked at, and hence who gets $1M in box B. In MNP, there is no corresponding process searching for genes correlated with gum chewing, so you can’t try to influence that process by choosing to not chew gum.
Yes, I think I understand that now. But in your version the two-boxing gene practically does not cause the $1M to be in box B, because Omega mostly looks at random other genes. Would that even be a Newcomblike problem?
In EY’s chewing gum MNP, it seems like CGTA causes both the throat abscess and influences people to chew gum. (See p.67 of the TDT paper ) (It gets much more complicated, if evolution has only produced a correlation between CGTA and another chewing gum gene.) The CGTA gene is always read, copied into RNA etc., ultimately leading to throat abscesses. (The rest of the DNA is used, too, but only determines the size of your nose etc.) In the GNP, the two-boxing gene is always read by Omega and translated into a number of dollars under box B. (Omega can look at the rest of the DNA, too, but does not care.) I don’t get the difference, yet, unfortunately.
I don’t understand UDT, yet, but it seems to me that in the chewing gum MNP, you could not chew gum, thereby changing whether other UDT agents chew gum, and hence whether UDT agents’ genes contain CGTA. Unless you know that CGTA has no impact on how you ultimately resolve this problem, which is not stated in the problem description and which would make EDT also chew gum.