So I think where we differ is that I don’t believe in a gene that controls my decision in the same way that you do. I don’t know how well I can articulate myself, but:
As an AI, I can choose whether my programming makes me one-box or not, by one-boxing or not. My programming isn’t responsible for my reasoning, it is my reasoning. If Omega looks at my source code and works out what I’ll do, then there are no worlds where Omega thinks I’ll one-box, but I actually two-box.
But imagine that all AIs have a constant variable in their source code, unhelpfully named TMP3. AIs with TMP3=true tend to one-box in Newcomblike problems, and AIs with TMP3=false tend to two-box. Omega decides whether to put in $1M by looking at TMP3.
(Does the problem still count as Newcomblike? I’m not sure that it does, so I don’t know if TMP3 correlates with my actions at all. But we can say that TMP3 correlates with how AIs act in GNP, instead.)
If I have access to my source code, I can find out whether I have TMP3=true or false. And regardless of which it is, I can two-box. (If I can’t choose to two-box, after learning that I have TMP3=true, then this isn’t me.) Since I can two-box without changing Omega’s decision, I should.
Whereas in the original Newcomb’s problem, I can look at my source code, and… maybe I can prove whether I one- or two-box. But if I can, that doesn’t constrain my decision so much as predict it, in the same way that Omega can; the prediction of “one-box” is going to take into account the fact that the arguments for one-boxing overwhelm the consideration of “I really want to two-box just to prove myself wrong”. More likely, I can’t prove anything. And I can one- or two-box, but Omega is going to predict me correctly, unlike in GNP, so I one-box.
The case where I don’t look at my source code is more complicated (maybe AIs with TMP3=true will never choose to look?), but I hope this at least illustrates why I don’t find the two comparable.
(That said, I might actually one-box, because I’m not sufficiently convinced of my reasoning.)
“I don’t believe in a gene that controls my decision” refers to reality, and of course I don’t believe in the gene either. The disagreement is whether or not such a gene is possible in principle, not whether or not there is one in reality. We both agree there is no gene like this in real life.
As you note, if an AI could read its source code and sees that it says “one-box”, then it will still one-box, because it simply does what it is programmed to do. This first of all violates the conditions as proposed (I said the AIs cannot look at their sourcec code, and Caspar42 stated that you do not know whether or not you have the gene).
But for the sake of argument we can allow looking at the source code, or at the gene. You believe that if you saw you had the gene that says “one-box”, then you could still two-box, so it couldn’t work the same way. You are wrong. Just as the AI would predictably end up one-boxing if it had that code, so you would predictably end up one-boxing if you had the gene. It is just a question of how this would happen. Perhaps you would go through your decision process, decide to two-box, and then suddenly become overwhelmed with a sudden desire to one-box. Perhaps it would be because you would think again and change your mind. But one way or another you would end up one-boxing. And this “doesn’t’ constrain my decision so much as predict it”, i.e. obviously both in the case of the AI and in the case of the gene, in reality causality does indeed go from the source code to one-boxing, or from the gene to one-boxing. But it is entirely the same in both cases—causality runs only from past to future, but for you, it feels just like a normal choice that you make in the normal way.
I was referring to “in principle”, not to reality.
You believe that if you saw you had the gene that says “one-box”, then you could still two-box
Yes. I think that if I couldn’t do that, it wouldn’t be me. If we don’t permit people without the two-boxing gene to two-box (the question as originally written did, but we don’t have to), then this isn’t a game I can possibly be offered. You can’t take me, and add a spooky influence which forces me to make a certain decision one way or the other, even when I know it’s the wrong way, and say that I’m still making the decision. So again, we’re at the point where I don’t know why we’re asking the question. If not-me has the gene, he’ll do one thing; if not, he’ll do the other; and it doesn’t make a difference what he should do. We’re not talking about agents with free action, here.
Again, I’m not sure exactly how this extends to the case where an agent doesn’t know whether they have the gene.
What if we take the original Newcomb, then Omega puts the million in the box, and then tells you “I have predicted with 100% certainty that you are only going to take one box, so I put the million there?”
Could you two-box in that situation, or would that take away your freedom?
If you say you could two-box in that situation, then once again the original Newcomb and the genetic Newcomb are the same.
If you say you could not, why would that be you when the genetic case would not be?
Unless something happens out of the blue to force my decision—in which case it’s not my decision—then this situation doesn’t happen. There might be people for whom Omega can predict with 100% certainty that they’re going to one-box even after Omega has told them his prediction, but I’m not one of them.
(I’m assuming here that people get offered the game regardless of their decision algorithm. If Omega only makes the offer to people whom he can predict certainly, we’re closer to a counterfactual mugging. At any rate, it changes the game significantly.)
I agree that in reality it is often impossible to predict someone’s actions, if you are going to tell them your prediction. That is why it is perfectly possible that the situation where you know the gene is impossible. But in any case this is all hypothetical because the situation posed assumes you cannot know which gene you have until you choose one or both boxes, at which point you immediately know.
EDIT: You’re really not getting the point, which is that the genetic Newcomb is identical to the original Newcomb in decision theoretic terms. Here you’re arguing not about the decision theory issue, but whether or not the situations involved are possible in reality. If Omega can’t predict with certainty when he tells his prediction, then I can equivalently say that the gene only predicts with certainty when you don’t know about it. Knowing about the gene may allow you to two-box, but that is no different from saying that knowing Omega’s decision before you make your choice would allow you to two-box, which it would.
Basically anything said about one case can be transformed into the other case by fairly simple transpositions. This should be obvious.
So I think where we differ is that I don’t believe in a gene that controls my decision in the same way that you do. I don’t know how well I can articulate myself, but:
As an AI, I can choose whether my programming makes me one-box or not, by one-boxing or not. My programming isn’t responsible for my reasoning, it is my reasoning. If Omega looks at my source code and works out what I’ll do, then there are no worlds where Omega thinks I’ll one-box, but I actually two-box.
But imagine that all AIs have a constant variable in their source code, unhelpfully named TMP3. AIs with TMP3=true tend to one-box in Newcomblike problems, and AIs with TMP3=false tend to two-box. Omega decides whether to put in $1M by looking at TMP3.
(Does the problem still count as Newcomblike? I’m not sure that it does, so I don’t know if TMP3 correlates with my actions at all. But we can say that TMP3 correlates with how AIs act in GNP, instead.)
If I have access to my source code, I can find out whether I have TMP3=true or false. And regardless of which it is, I can two-box. (If I can’t choose to two-box, after learning that I have TMP3=true, then this isn’t me.) Since I can two-box without changing Omega’s decision, I should.
Whereas in the original Newcomb’s problem, I can look at my source code, and… maybe I can prove whether I one- or two-box. But if I can, that doesn’t constrain my decision so much as predict it, in the same way that Omega can; the prediction of “one-box” is going to take into account the fact that the arguments for one-boxing overwhelm the consideration of “I really want to two-box just to prove myself wrong”. More likely, I can’t prove anything. And I can one- or two-box, but Omega is going to predict me correctly, unlike in GNP, so I one-box.
The case where I don’t look at my source code is more complicated (maybe AIs with TMP3=true will never choose to look?), but I hope this at least illustrates why I don’t find the two comparable.
(That said, I might actually one-box, because I’m not sufficiently convinced of my reasoning.)
“I don’t believe in a gene that controls my decision” refers to reality, and of course I don’t believe in the gene either. The disagreement is whether or not such a gene is possible in principle, not whether or not there is one in reality. We both agree there is no gene like this in real life.
As you note, if an AI could read its source code and sees that it says “one-box”, then it will still one-box, because it simply does what it is programmed to do. This first of all violates the conditions as proposed (I said the AIs cannot look at their sourcec code, and Caspar42 stated that you do not know whether or not you have the gene).
But for the sake of argument we can allow looking at the source code, or at the gene. You believe that if you saw you had the gene that says “one-box”, then you could still two-box, so it couldn’t work the same way. You are wrong. Just as the AI would predictably end up one-boxing if it had that code, so you would predictably end up one-boxing if you had the gene. It is just a question of how this would happen. Perhaps you would go through your decision process, decide to two-box, and then suddenly become overwhelmed with a sudden desire to one-box. Perhaps it would be because you would think again and change your mind. But one way or another you would end up one-boxing. And this “doesn’t’ constrain my decision so much as predict it”, i.e. obviously both in the case of the AI and in the case of the gene, in reality causality does indeed go from the source code to one-boxing, or from the gene to one-boxing. But it is entirely the same in both cases—causality runs only from past to future, but for you, it feels just like a normal choice that you make in the normal way.
I was referring to “in principle”, not to reality.
Yes. I think that if I couldn’t do that, it wouldn’t be me. If we don’t permit people without the two-boxing gene to two-box (the question as originally written did, but we don’t have to), then this isn’t a game I can possibly be offered. You can’t take me, and add a spooky influence which forces me to make a certain decision one way or the other, even when I know it’s the wrong way, and say that I’m still making the decision. So again, we’re at the point where I don’t know why we’re asking the question. If not-me has the gene, he’ll do one thing; if not, he’ll do the other; and it doesn’t make a difference what he should do. We’re not talking about agents with free action, here.
Again, I’m not sure exactly how this extends to the case where an agent doesn’t know whether they have the gene.
What if we take the original Newcomb, then Omega puts the million in the box, and then tells you “I have predicted with 100% certainty that you are only going to take one box, so I put the million there?”
Could you two-box in that situation, or would that take away your freedom?
If you say you could two-box in that situation, then once again the original Newcomb and the genetic Newcomb are the same.
If you say you could not, why would that be you when the genetic case would not be?
Unless something happens out of the blue to force my decision—in which case it’s not my decision—then this situation doesn’t happen. There might be people for whom Omega can predict with 100% certainty that they’re going to one-box even after Omega has told them his prediction, but I’m not one of them.
(I’m assuming here that people get offered the game regardless of their decision algorithm. If Omega only makes the offer to people whom he can predict certainly, we’re closer to a counterfactual mugging. At any rate, it changes the game significantly.)
I agree that in reality it is often impossible to predict someone’s actions, if you are going to tell them your prediction. That is why it is perfectly possible that the situation where you know the gene is impossible. But in any case this is all hypothetical because the situation posed assumes you cannot know which gene you have until you choose one or both boxes, at which point you immediately know.
EDIT: You’re really not getting the point, which is that the genetic Newcomb is identical to the original Newcomb in decision theoretic terms. Here you’re arguing not about the decision theory issue, but whether or not the situations involved are possible in reality. If Omega can’t predict with certainty when he tells his prediction, then I can equivalently say that the gene only predicts with certainty when you don’t know about it. Knowing about the gene may allow you to two-box, but that is no different from saying that knowing Omega’s decision before you make your choice would allow you to two-box, which it would.
Basically anything said about one case can be transformed into the other case by fairly simple transpositions. This should be obvious.
Sorry, tapping out now.
EDIT: but brief reply to your edit: I’m well aware that you think they’re the same, and telling me that I’m not getting the point is super unhelpful.