There’s also disagreement about the efficacy of using Luna as a refueling stop, so to speak, en route to the Red Planet. From an orbital mechanics standpoint, it’s not a slam-dunk idea, but the argument in practice depends heavily on the specific logistics. In-situ fuel production might just make such a configuration worth it.
I think it’s pretty much a slam-dunk that refueling on the moon is a bad idea. Adding lots of complexity (thus failure points) and the cost of establishing the necessary infrastructure for what can be accomplished by a few re-fueling trips in LEO seems unnecessary, especially considering it’s not even the right fuel. And if you’re talking about expendable rockets, well, Robert Zubrin has done detailed analysis on why refueling on the moon is utterly counterproductive and Mars Direct is better. delta-v ≠ money saved.
While Mars is obviously the more attractive target for colonization, we are a very long way from building colonies on other celestial bodies, no matter how good of an idea it is.
Very much disagree on space colonies as hedge against human extinction. I could write a more detailed critique, but the bottom line is there is no x-risk severe enough to wipe out all (not merely 99.999%) humans on Earth but at the same time not severe enough to also wipe out all moon/Mars colonies.
The reason is very simple: space colonization is an unspeakably expensive proposition.
Not necessarily. Senate-run space program is definitely an unspeakably expensive proposition, though.
I have yet to think of an economic need which a self-sustaining population on Mars would fulfill, that innovative strategies could not fulfill on Earth. Farming food on Mars? We can do hydroponics here. Running out of room to house people? We’re nowhere near that kind of population density. New legal environments to test out social engineering concepts? Seasteads and charter cities are way safer and less expensive. Climate change? Just tax carbon and build nuclear power plants, sheesh.
Agreed, except the part about sea-steading. Staying home is even more safe and less expensive. Put in a less tongue-in-cheek way: The difficulty of reaching Mars is why a Mars colony has a chance to become an independent civilization in the first place. Sending supplies to Mars is so difficult that the colonists would be better off building up their own supply chains in the long term for anything but the most value-dense equipment like microprocessors. The same isn’t true for a sea-stead; sure you could in theory build your own economy, but realistically you’ll just end up importing everything because it’s easy, become heavily reliant on the outside world and be independent in name only. You’re also within reach of any tax-collecting naval power of the world.
No one will front the money to build Mars colonies until there’s an economic incentive to do so. I see no such economic incentive. I would love to be wrong about this, because Mars is the best colonization target by far. But I don’t think I am.
Depends on what amount you’re talking about. If it’s <$100 billion mere prestige would be enough incentive, otherwise Apollo could have never happened.
As the people of Earth demand an increasingly high standard of living and simultaneously a cleaner environment, I suspect that this may prove to be the ultimate driver of off-world industrialization. Again, though, speculation.
Very far-fetched argument. To relocate the vast amount of industry required to make a significant positive impact on the environment, you’d need to lower launch costs close to maritime shipping costs today. And at that point, supplying off-world colonies would be just as easy.
Critically, space industrialization is different from space colonization. Developing an off-world economy is a pre-requisite for seeing a large, permanent population above the atmosphere.
A dubious conclusion. Do you propose relocating entire supply chains off-world, or just small bits? If it’s the former, it’s no easier than founding a self-sufficient colony. If it’s the latter, it’s not worth it due to exorbitant transportation costs back and forth from Earth.
Governments may choose to pay for scientific missions to other planets; they will not front the costs of developing entire planets quite literally from the ground up. Whatever outputs space agencies may build, they will not be colonies.
colony ≠ terraforming
People won’t live there, the way that human populations have whenever establishing themselves in a new locality. There won’t be families and new businesses and the like, not for a long time.
Instead, we’re probably going to see many largely-automated operations, with minimal and possibly intermittent human presence.
I think you’re seriously overestimating the capability of robots. Compare what the Apollo astronauts were able to do on the moon and what Mars rovers have done.
As we push towards human settlement in space, our focus should therefore be the development of new industries and new technologies to enable and motivate working above the atmosphere.
This sounds like a call to action, but if human settlement in space was profitable, it would happen anyway? Also, who’s “we”?
One day, our species will span three worlds. That day remains very far away. Rather than fixate on terraforming dreams, we should chart a course carried by the currents of economic necessity. With the correct regulatory environment and technological investments, we can begin building sustainable off-world industries in a realistic timescale. Such industries will carry us to the planets in the pursuit of profit—a far more reliable motivator than any humanitarian spirit from politicians.
That, I suspect, is what the future of space travel is going to come down to. Do we pursue an incremental strategy that eventually carries us to the ends of the Solar System, or do we wallow on this one planet, fantasizing of an amazing future no one has any incentive to hand us? Are we going to fixate on self-sustained colonies and settle for nothing less, or shall we go to Luna first, but not to live there?
Again, colony ≠ terraforming, and again, curious to hear your thoughts on why Mars Direct/Elon Musk’s plan won’t pan out. In any case, whatever your vision for future human space exploration is exactly, the only thing that matters right now is lowering launch costs.
Very much disagree on space colonies as hedge against human extinction. I could write a more detailed critique, but the bottom line is there is no x-risk severe enough to wipe out all (not merely 99.999%) humans on Earth but at the same time not severe enough to also wipe out all moon/Mars colonies.
I think this is a good point. Civilization may eventually recover from some catastrophic risks (e.g. nuclear war). And some risks are so severe that even Mars would not be safe (e.g. UFAI).
But are there no risks that could wipe out humanity on Earth that wouldn’t also kill a Mars colony? A comet impacting the Earth might be at the right scale for that. Or maybe a runaway greenhouse effect triggered by our carbon emissions.
And what do you think about using space colonies as a hedge against the collapse of civilization (rather than extinction)?
But are there no risks that could wipe out humanity on Earth that wouldn’t also kill a Mars colony? A comet impacting the Earth might be at the right scale for that. Or maybe a runaway greenhouse effect triggered by our carbon emissions.
I have thought about both scenarios and, no, I don’t think either is plausible. I find natural x-risks not worth defending against in general due to their unlikelihood and lack of severity. If a planet allows complex but non-technological life to exist for hundreds of millions of years, it has nothing to throw at us in the next few hundred years.
Regarding meteor impact specifically, I think a comet would have to be significantly bigger than the one that caused the Chicxulub crater and failed to wipe out the dinosaurs. Birds are not close cousins of dinosaurs, they are the direct descendants; and had that meteor missed the Earth, dinosaurs would likely have evolved into something that looks very different than what walked the Earth 65 million years ago anyway, just like how we look very different to early mammals.
We, like the dinosaurs, are spread all over the Earth across every climate zone. Unlike the dinosaurs, we have technology at our disposal from stone tools to computers. Even the ruins of our civilization will provide many useful tools to ensure the survival of at least the tiniest fraction of humanity. I believe we are far more resilient than dinosaurs which again, survived the Chicxulub impact.
Since the distribution of meteor sizes follows a power law, it’s unlikely for Earth to encounter a comet/asteroid large enough to wipe out humanity outright until the sun becomes a Red Giant, let alone the next few centuries.
But if we were to hedge against such an impact, the most cost-effective way would be to create large underground bunkers with infrastructure and industry to keep a small isolated civilization running indefinitely. If we can build a self-sufficient colony on Mars, we sure as hell could do it on Earth.
Regarding runaway greenhouse effect, we have geological records testifying CO2 concentrations above 1000 ppm in the Cretaceous period which didn’t cause a runaway greenhouse, and I expect climate catastrophes to limit our ability to pump more CO2 into the atmosphere well before then through regional economic collapse. Since it’s a gradual process, there is also time for negative feedback like plant growth to kick in, and for drastic geoengineering efforts such as deliberately setting off a nuclear winter.
My favorite example of a one-planet x-risk (at first glance) is a microscopic black hole swallowing the Earth. Since a black hole with Earth’s mass would follow the same orbit, you’d think it won’t have any effect on the rest of the solar system. (Un)fortunately, there is 1) no physics grounding for the thesis that such a black hole would be stable and 2) the energy released in such an event would be akin to setting off a supernova inside the solar system and nuking everything from here to Pluto.
I’m not sure what you mean by “hedging against the collapse of civilization”. A Mars colony doesn’t stop civilization from collapsing on Earth. It would help avoid a delay in technological progress from a collapse, but in the long run a delay of a few centuries is of no particular importance.
I think it’s pretty much a slam-dunk that refueling on the moon is a bad idea. Adding lots of complexity (thus failure points) and the cost of establishing the necessary infrastructure for what can be accomplished by a few re-fueling trips in LEO seems unnecessary, especially considering it’s not even the right fuel. And if you’re talking about expendable rockets, well, Robert Zubrin has done detailed analysis on why refueling on the moon is utterly counterproductive and Mars Direct is better. delta-v ≠ money saved.
Very much disagree on space colonies as hedge against human extinction. I could write a more detailed critique, but the bottom line is there is no x-risk severe enough to wipe out all (not merely 99.999%) humans on Earth but at the same time not severe enough to also wipe out all moon/Mars colonies.
Not necessarily. Senate-run space program is definitely an unspeakably expensive proposition, though.
Agreed, except the part about sea-steading. Staying home is even more safe and less expensive. Put in a less tongue-in-cheek way: The difficulty of reaching Mars is why a Mars colony has a chance to become an independent civilization in the first place. Sending supplies to Mars is so difficult that the colonists would be better off building up their own supply chains in the long term for anything but the most value-dense equipment like microprocessors. The same isn’t true for a sea-stead; sure you could in theory build your own economy, but realistically you’ll just end up importing everything because it’s easy, become heavily reliant on the outside world and be independent in name only. You’re also within reach of any tax-collecting naval power of the world.
Depends on what amount you’re talking about. If it’s <$100 billion mere prestige would be enough incentive, otherwise Apollo could have never happened.
Very far-fetched argument. To relocate the vast amount of industry required to make a significant positive impact on the environment, you’d need to lower launch costs close to maritime shipping costs today. And at that point, supplying off-world colonies would be just as easy.
A dubious conclusion. Do you propose relocating entire supply chains off-world, or just small bits? If it’s the former, it’s no easier than founding a self-sufficient colony. If it’s the latter, it’s not worth it due to exorbitant transportation costs back and forth from Earth.
colony ≠ terraforming
I think you’re seriously overestimating the capability of robots. Compare what the Apollo astronauts were able to do on the moon and what Mars rovers have done.
This sounds like a call to action, but if human settlement in space was profitable, it would happen anyway? Also, who’s “we”?
Again, colony ≠ terraforming, and again, curious to hear your thoughts on why Mars Direct/Elon Musk’s plan won’t pan out. In any case, whatever your vision for future human space exploration is exactly, the only thing that matters right now is lowering launch costs.
I think this is a good point. Civilization may eventually recover from some catastrophic risks (e.g. nuclear war). And some risks are so severe that even Mars would not be safe (e.g. UFAI).
But are there no risks that could wipe out humanity on Earth that wouldn’t also kill a Mars colony? A comet impacting the Earth might be at the right scale for that. Or maybe a runaway greenhouse effect triggered by our carbon emissions.
And what do you think about using space colonies as a hedge against the collapse of civilization (rather than extinction)?
I have thought about both scenarios and, no, I don’t think either is plausible. I find natural x-risks not worth defending against in general due to their unlikelihood and lack of severity. If a planet allows complex but non-technological life to exist for hundreds of millions of years, it has nothing to throw at us in the next few hundred years.
Regarding meteor impact specifically, I think a comet would have to be significantly bigger than the one that caused the Chicxulub crater and failed to wipe out the dinosaurs. Birds are not close cousins of dinosaurs, they are the direct descendants; and had that meteor missed the Earth, dinosaurs would likely have evolved into something that looks very different than what walked the Earth 65 million years ago anyway, just like how we look very different to early mammals.
We, like the dinosaurs, are spread all over the Earth across every climate zone. Unlike the dinosaurs, we have technology at our disposal from stone tools to computers. Even the ruins of our civilization will provide many useful tools to ensure the survival of at least the tiniest fraction of humanity. I believe we are far more resilient than dinosaurs which again, survived the Chicxulub impact.
Since the distribution of meteor sizes follows a power law, it’s unlikely for Earth to encounter a comet/asteroid large enough to wipe out humanity outright until the sun becomes a Red Giant, let alone the next few centuries.
But if we were to hedge against such an impact, the most cost-effective way would be to create large underground bunkers with infrastructure and industry to keep a small isolated civilization running indefinitely. If we can build a self-sufficient colony on Mars, we sure as hell could do it on Earth.
Regarding runaway greenhouse effect, we have geological records testifying CO2 concentrations above 1000 ppm in the Cretaceous period which didn’t cause a runaway greenhouse, and I expect climate catastrophes to limit our ability to pump more CO2 into the atmosphere well before then through regional economic collapse. Since it’s a gradual process, there is also time for negative feedback like plant growth to kick in, and for drastic geoengineering efforts such as deliberately setting off a nuclear winter.
My favorite example of a one-planet x-risk (at first glance) is a microscopic black hole swallowing the Earth. Since a black hole with Earth’s mass would follow the same orbit, you’d think it won’t have any effect on the rest of the solar system. (Un)fortunately, there is 1) no physics grounding for the thesis that such a black hole would be stable and 2) the energy released in such an event would be akin to setting off a supernova inside the solar system and nuking everything from here to Pluto.
I’m not sure what you mean by “hedging against the collapse of civilization”. A Mars colony doesn’t stop civilization from collapsing on Earth. It would help avoid a delay in technological progress from a collapse, but in the long run a delay of a few centuries is of no particular importance.