I would like to take the complete opposite position and argue that self-sufficient space colonies will happen long before Earth reaps any benefits from industrial activities in outer space, if ever. The reason I believe this is that outer space activities won’t be economically driven for a long time, because there is no profit to be made.
It is important to clarify what sort of propulsion technologies you are basing your analysis on. I subdivide propulsion technologies into 3 categories:
Level 1: current non-reusable rockets; ~$10,000 per kg to LEO
Level 2: reusable rockets, space planes; ~$100 per kg to LEO
Level 3: space-elevators, orbital rings, fusion drive; <$1 per kg to LEO and beyond
With level 1 tech delta-v is absolutely crucial for any activity in outer space because every kg of fuel in LEO is worth its weight in gold. With level 2 tech, delta-v becomes a much less important consideration; there are plenty of equipment whose value exceeds $100 per kg, and the cost can be further reduced with dedicated tanker spacecrafts highly optimized for re-usability. Fuel itself is cheap, after all. And finally, with level 3 tech, delta-v becomes utterly trivial; simply climbing higher on a space-elevator can eject you straight out of the solar system.
We have been stuck on level 1 for half a century now, and there has been no outer space activities beyond a few space probes here and there. If we stay on this level, there is no reason to expect more activities in the future, either. If we ever reach level 3, setting up shop anywhere in the solar system will be just as easy as on Earth. So level 2 is the only scenario worth discussing with regard to colonization vs industrialization in my mind.
Currently, our best bet to reach level 2 by far is SpaceX, which was founded with the explicit goal of colonizing Mars. It is way ahead of the competition both in terms of currently operational re-usable rockets (having sucked up most of the global non-governmental launch market) and pushing re-usability tech further. It is in the process of becoming a space-based internet broadband provider which has the revenue potential dwarfing the satellite launch market, with no competition in sight. It is also a privately-held company and intentionally so, so that profit incentives don’t get in the way of its mission.
Their road map is to lower launch cost enough such that private citizens, the government or Elon Musk himself (most likely a combination of the above) could fund a Mars homesteading campaign. Low enough that economic drives are unnecessary. I would like to hear why this plan is unrealistic.
One major advantage Mars has over the moon (regardless of colonization or industrialization) is the availability of carbon. The only fuel that can be produced in-situ on the moon is hydrogen, which is not ideal for re-usability due to its low boiling point and hydrogen embrittlement. There is good reason all next-gen re-usable rocket engines use methane as fuel.
But far more importantly, you have not argued why industrializing the moon is a good idea in the first place. I wholeheartedly agree with the idea that operations on Mars will never turn a profit for Earth, but that hardly supports your point. Putting factories on the moon might make (marginally) less losses than putting factories on Mars, but so what, there is always the option to stay home and make no loss.
But far more importantly, you have not argued why industrializing the moon is a good idea in the first place. I wholeheartedly agree with the idea that operations on Mars will never turn a profit for Earth, but that hardly supports your point. Putting factories on the moon might make (marginally) less losses than putting factories on Mars, but so what, there is always the option to stay home and make no loss.
Industrializing space is desirable because industrializing Earth has had a number of negative side effects on the biosphere, so moving production outside the biosphere would be a positive development. My argument is that the option of staying home is clearly economically preferable for now, and will be unless we see major cost reductions in space technology.
Whether SpaceX and other launch vehicle organizations can reach the Level 2 threshold you describe remains to be seen, and LVs are only part of the pricetag. Materials, equipment, and labor represent a large segment of space mission cost, and unless we can also drive those down by similar degrees do the economics of colonization start making sense.
Industrializing space is desirable because industrializing Earth has had a number of negative side effects on the biosphere, so moving production outside the biosphere would be a positive development. My argument is that the option of staying home is clearly economically preferable for now, and will be unless we see major cost reductions in space technology.
I thought your argument is that we should industrialize space because it’s economically viable?
Putting that aside, environmentalism is just about the last reason for space activities. Space travel has had a negligible impact on the environment thus far only because there has been so little space travel. But on a per-kilogram payload basis, even assuming the cleanest metholox/hydrolox fuel composition produced purely from solar power, the NO2 from hot exhaust plumes and ozone-eating free radicals from reentry heat alone are enough make any environmentalist screech in horror. You’d have to go to the far end of level 3 tech to even begin making this argument, and even then it still isn’t an economic incentive. You can’t seriously dismiss space tourism as a driver for space travel and then propose environmentalism as an alternative.
Whether SpaceX and other launch vehicle organizations can reach the Level 2 threshold you describe remains to be seen, and LVs are only part of the pricetag. Materials, equipment, and labor represent a large segment of space mission cost, and unless we can also drive those down by similar degrees do the economics of colonization start making sense.
Space is hard, sure, but how does that help your point exactly? Colonization doesn’t have to (and won’t) make economic sense. Industrialization does.
Not really. This isn’t relevant for the Moon vs Mars debate, but even for the outer planets I would argue
Short travel time isn’t necessary for colonizing or industrializing outer planets
Nuclear fusion can realistically go up to 500,000s Isp, dwarfing any reasonable requirement for travel time inside the solar system
Also, all the analysis with hyperbolic orbits are kind of unnecessary as the solar gravity well becomes trivial for short transfers. You could just as well assume the target planets to be fixed points and get the Δv requirement from distance divided by desired travel time (x2 for deceleration).
I would like to take the complete opposite position and argue that self-sufficient space colonies will happen long before Earth reaps any benefits from industrial activities in outer space, if ever. The reason I believe this is that outer space activities won’t be economically driven for a long time, because there is no profit to be made.
It is important to clarify what sort of propulsion technologies you are basing your analysis on. I subdivide propulsion technologies into 3 categories:
Level 1: current non-reusable rockets; ~$10,000 per kg to LEO
Level 2: reusable rockets, space planes; ~$100 per kg to LEO
Level 3: space-elevators, orbital rings, fusion drive; <$1 per kg to LEO and beyond
With level 1 tech delta-v is absolutely crucial for any activity in outer space because every kg of fuel in LEO is worth its weight in gold. With level 2 tech, delta-v becomes a much less important consideration; there are plenty of equipment whose value exceeds $100 per kg, and the cost can be further reduced with dedicated tanker spacecrafts highly optimized for re-usability. Fuel itself is cheap, after all. And finally, with level 3 tech, delta-v becomes utterly trivial; simply climbing higher on a space-elevator can eject you straight out of the solar system.
We have been stuck on level 1 for half a century now, and there has been no outer space activities beyond a few space probes here and there. If we stay on this level, there is no reason to expect more activities in the future, either. If we ever reach level 3, setting up shop anywhere in the solar system will be just as easy as on Earth. So level 2 is the only scenario worth discussing with regard to colonization vs industrialization in my mind.
Currently, our best bet to reach level 2 by far is SpaceX, which was founded with the explicit goal of colonizing Mars. It is way ahead of the competition both in terms of currently operational re-usable rockets (having sucked up most of the global non-governmental launch market) and pushing re-usability tech further. It is in the process of becoming a space-based internet broadband provider which has the revenue potential dwarfing the satellite launch market, with no competition in sight. It is also a privately-held company and intentionally so, so that profit incentives don’t get in the way of its mission.
Their road map is to lower launch cost enough such that private citizens, the government or Elon Musk himself (most likely a combination of the above) could fund a Mars homesteading campaign. Low enough that economic drives are unnecessary. I would like to hear why this plan is unrealistic.
One major advantage Mars has over the moon (regardless of colonization or industrialization) is the availability of carbon. The only fuel that can be produced in-situ on the moon is hydrogen, which is not ideal for re-usability due to its low boiling point and hydrogen embrittlement. There is good reason all next-gen re-usable rocket engines use methane as fuel.
But far more importantly, you have not argued why industrializing the moon is a good idea in the first place. I wholeheartedly agree with the idea that operations on Mars will never turn a profit for Earth, but that hardly supports your point. Putting factories on the moon might make (marginally) less losses than putting factories on Mars, but so what, there is always the option to stay home and make no loss.
The economics that Elon predicts are more ~$10 per kg to LEO then ~$100.
Industrializing space is desirable because industrializing Earth has had a number of negative side effects on the biosphere, so moving production outside the biosphere would be a positive development. My argument is that the option of staying home is clearly economically preferable for now, and will be unless we see major cost reductions in space technology.
Whether SpaceX and other launch vehicle organizations can reach the Level 2 threshold you describe remains to be seen, and LVs are only part of the pricetag. Materials, equipment, and labor represent a large segment of space mission cost, and unless we can also drive those down by similar degrees do the economics of colonization start making sense.
Note, too, that ΔV is non-trivial, even when we start getting to high specific-impulse technologies.
I thought your argument is that we should industrialize space because it’s economically viable?
Putting that aside, environmentalism is just about the last reason for space activities. Space travel has had a negligible impact on the environment thus far only because there has been so little space travel. But on a per-kilogram payload basis, even assuming the cleanest metholox/hydrolox fuel composition produced purely from solar power, the NO2 from hot exhaust plumes and ozone-eating free radicals from reentry heat alone are enough make any environmentalist screech in horror. You’d have to go to the far end of level 3 tech to even begin making this argument, and even then it still isn’t an economic incentive. You can’t seriously dismiss space tourism as a driver for space travel and then propose environmentalism as an alternative.
Space is hard, sure, but how does that help your point exactly? Colonization doesn’t have to (and won’t) make economic sense. Industrialization does.
Not really. This isn’t relevant for the Moon vs Mars debate, but even for the outer planets I would argue
Short travel time isn’t necessary for colonizing or industrializing outer planets
Nuclear fusion can realistically go up to 500,000s Isp, dwarfing any reasonable requirement for travel time inside the solar system
Also, all the analysis with hyperbolic orbits are kind of unnecessary as the solar gravity well becomes trivial for short transfers. You could just as well assume the target planets to be fixed points and get the Δv requirement from distance divided by desired travel time (x2 for deceleration).