Yeah, I’ve seen that photo before; I’m glad we have a record of this kind of thing! It doesn’t cause me to think that the thing I said in 2017 was false, though it suggests to me that most FHI staff overall in 2014 (like most 80K staff in 2017) probably would have assigned <10% probability to AGI-caused extinction (assuming there weren’t a bunch of FHI staff thinking “AGI is a lot more likely to cause non-extinction existential catastrophes” and/or “AGI has a decent chance of destroying the world, but we definitely won’t reach AGI this century”).
Then it is worth considering the majority of experts from the FHI to be extreme optimists, the same 20%? I really tried to find all the publicly available forecasts of experts and those who were confident that AI would lead to the extinction of humanity, there were very few among them. But I have no reason not to believe you or Luke Muehlhauser who introduced AI safety experts as even more confident pessimists: ’Many of them are, roughly speaking, 65%-85% confident that machine superintelligence will lead to human extinction’ . The reason may be that not everyone agrees, whose opinion is worth considering.
What about this and this? Here, some researchers at the FHI give other probabilities.
Yeah, I’ve seen that photo before; I’m glad we have a record of this kind of thing! It doesn’t cause me to think that the thing I said in 2017 was false, though it suggests to me that most FHI staff overall in 2014 (like most 80K staff in 2017) probably would have assigned <10% probability to AGI-caused extinction (assuming there weren’t a bunch of FHI staff thinking “AGI is a lot more likely to cause non-extinction existential catastrophes” and/or “AGI has a decent chance of destroying the world, but we definitely won’t reach AGI this century”).
Then it is worth considering the majority of experts from the FHI to be extreme optimists, the same 20%? I really tried to find all the publicly available forecasts of experts and those who were confident that AI would lead to the extinction of humanity, there were very few among them. But I have no reason not to believe you or Luke Muehlhauser who introduced AI safety experts as even more confident pessimists: ’Many of them are, roughly speaking, 65%-85% confident that machine superintelligence will lead to human extinction’ . The reason may be that not everyone agrees, whose opinion is worth considering.