“I naturally prefer to have a high level of confidence in my beliefs.”
Doesn’t that depend on how reliable those beliefs are?
If you’re fleeing through the temple pursued by a boulder, you don’t want to dither at an intersection, so whichever direction you think you should go at one moment should be constant. But there’s no reason why your confidence should be high to avoid dithering; you need merely be stable.
“’ll take the path I belief leads to safety. This will turn out to be a wise choice”
If, and only if, your belief is correct. If your belief is wrong your choice is a disastrous one. Rationality isn’t about being right or choosing the best course, it’s about knowing that you’re right and knowing which is the best course to choose.
Then I think I agree with you, mostly. If time or a similar limited resource makes rigorous justification too expensive, we shouldn’t require it. But whatever we do accept should be minimally justified, even if it’s just “I have no idea where to go so I’ll pick at random”.
I wouldn’t look at the map if I were running from the boulder. But I would have looked at it before entering the temple, and you can bet I’d be trying very hard to retrace my steps on the way out, unless I thought I could identify a shortcut. Even then I might not take the gamble.
“I naturally prefer to have a high level of confidence in my beliefs.”
Doesn’t that depend on how reliable those beliefs are?
If you’re fleeing through the temple pursued by a boulder, you don’t want to dither at an intersection, so whichever direction you think you should go at one moment should be constant. But there’s no reason why your confidence should be high to avoid dithering; you need merely be stable.
“’ll take the path I belief leads to safety. This will turn out to be a wise choice”
If, and only if, your belief is correct. If your belief is wrong your choice is a disastrous one. Rationality isn’t about being right or choosing the best course, it’s about knowing that you’re right and knowing which is the best course to choose.
Thanks Annoyance, I replaced ‘have a high level of confidence’ with ‘having enough evidence to be confident’. That makes my intended meaning clearer.
Then I think I agree with you, mostly. If time or a similar limited resource makes rigorous justification too expensive, we shouldn’t require it. But whatever we do accept should be minimally justified, even if it’s just “I have no idea where to go so I’ll pick at random”.
I wouldn’t look at the map if I were running from the boulder. But I would have looked at it before entering the temple, and you can bet I’d be trying very hard to retrace my steps on the way out, unless I thought I could identify a shortcut. Even then I might not take the gamble.