Got it. Then I agree with that. I’m curious if you’ve thought about where you’d put lower and upper bound estimates on capabilities before hitting that bottleneck?
That’s a good question. I don’t think I have a great idea of the lower / upper bound on capabilities from each, but I also don’t think it matters much—I suspect we’ll be doing both well before we hit AGI’s upper bound.
There’s likely plenty of “low hanging fruit” for AGI to uncover just working with human data and human labels, but I also suspect there are pretty easy ways to let AI start generating / testing hypothesis about the real world—and there are additional advantages of scale and automation to taking humans out of the loop.
Got it. Then I agree with that. I’m curious if you’ve thought about where you’d put lower and upper bound estimates on capabilities before hitting that bottleneck?
That’s a good question. I don’t think I have a great idea of the lower / upper bound on capabilities from each, but I also don’t think it matters much—I suspect we’ll be doing both well before we hit AGI’s upper bound.
There’s likely plenty of “low hanging fruit” for AGI to uncover just working with human data and human labels, but I also suspect there are pretty easy ways to let AI start generating / testing hypothesis about the real world—and there are additional advantages of scale and automation to taking humans out of the loop.