I’m not sure what you mean with “which ontologies are true”. If you take the example of Valentine’s ki, that ontology allowed Valentine for a long time to do things that he couldn’t do without the ontology. Putting probabilities on ki being the true ontology misses the point.
If he assigned 50 per cent probability to the ki ontology, he still could do everything which is required by ki-ontology, but a) divide expected gains on 2 b) updated probability of the ki ontology depending if it works or not, and also based on explanation power of other ontologies for the same set of the evidence.
I’m not sure what you mean with “which ontologies are true”. If you take the example of Valentine’s ki, that ontology allowed Valentine for a long time to do things that he couldn’t do without the ontology. Putting probabilities on ki being the true ontology misses the point.
If he assigned 50 per cent probability to the ki ontology, he still could do everything which is required by ki-ontology, but a) divide expected gains on 2 b) updated probability of the ki ontology depending if it works or not, and also based on explanation power of other ontologies for the same set of the evidence.