Edit: 99.8% assumes independence, which is certainly violated in the proposed case.
Here’s the thing: in order for nick012000′s stated confidence to be justified, every one of these six points must be justified to a level over 99% - and the geometric average must be over 99.8%. The difference between 99% and 99.8% may not be huge in the grand scheme of things, but for historical events it’s far from negligible.
Edit: 99.8% assumes independence, which is certainly violated in the proposed case.
Here’s the thing: in order for nick012000′s stated confidence to be justified, every one of these six points must be justified to a level over 99% - and the geometric average must be over 99.8%. The difference between 99% and 99.8% may not be huge in the grand scheme of things, but for historical events it’s far from negligible.