I agree with most of what you’re saying (in that comment and this one) but I still think that the ability to give well calibrated probability estimates for a particular prediction is instrumentally useful and that it is fairly likely that this is an ability that can be improved with practice. I don’t take this to imply anything about humans performing actual Bayesian calculations either implicitly or explicitly.
I addressed this point in another comment in this thread:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/2sl/the_irrationality_game/2qgm
I agree with most of what you’re saying (in that comment and this one) but I still think that the ability to give well calibrated probability estimates for a particular prediction is instrumentally useful and that it is fairly likely that this is an ability that can be improved with practice. I don’t take this to imply anything about humans performing actual Bayesian calculations either implicitly or explicitly.