I accept this analysis of what I wrote. In the attempt to be concise, I haven’t really said what I meant very clearly.
I don’t mean that “we can’t say anything about AI”, but what I am saying is that we are a very long way from being able to say anything particularly worth saying about AI.
By which I mean to say that we are in some situation analogous to that of a 19th century weather forecaster, trying to predict the following week’s weather. It’s worth pushing the quality of the tools and the analysis, but don’t expect any useful, real-world applicable information for a few lifetimes. And my confidence goes up the more I think about it.
Which, in the context of the audience of LW, I hoped would be seen as more contrarian than it has been! Perhaps this clarification will help.
I accept this analysis of what I wrote. In the attempt to be concise, I haven’t really said what I meant very clearly.
I don’t mean that “we can’t say anything about AI”, but what I am saying is that we are a very long way from being able to say anything particularly worth saying about AI.
By which I mean to say that we are in some situation analogous to that of a 19th century weather forecaster, trying to predict the following week’s weather. It’s worth pushing the quality of the tools and the analysis, but don’t expect any useful, real-world applicable information for a few lifetimes. And my confidence goes up the more I think about it.
Which, in the context of the audience of LW, I hoped would be seen as more contrarian than it has been! Perhaps this clarification will help.