However, your statement that “one’s own probability assignments are not necessarily introspectable” basically restates my main point, which was exactly about the meaninglessness of analyzing one’s own common-sense judgments to arrive at a numerical probability estimate, which many people here, in contrast, consider to be the right way to increase the accuracy of one’s thinking.
As it happens, early on I voted your initial comment down (following the topsy-turvy rules of the main post) because based on my first impression I thought I agreed with you. Reconsideration of your comment in light of the ensuing discussion brought to my mind this seeming objection. But you have disarmed the objection, so I am back to agreement.
As it happens, early on I voted your initial comment down (following the topsy-turvy rules of the main post) because based on my first impression I thought I agreed with you. Reconsideration of your comment in light of the ensuing discussion brought to my mind this seeming objection. But you have disarmed the objection, so I am back to agreement.