Aggregating accusations of overconfidence with underconfidence seems absurd to me.
Thus people should (and, I think, did) phrase their predictions to be accused of overconfidence, so that if I propose that Antipope Christopher would have been a good leader at 30%, it’s not because I expect most people put it at 90%.
Aggregating accusations of overconfidence with underconfidence seems absurd to me.
Thus people should (and, I think, did) phrase their predictions to be accused of overconfidence, so that if I propose that Antipope Christopher would have been a good leader at 30%, it’s not because I expect most people put it at 90%.