Eliezer, not bothering to go after a goal may fall into that category. For example, it’s reasonable to choose to live an average life, because one is probably mistaken if one thinks one is likely to have strongly positively deviant outcomes in life, such as becoming a billionaire, or procreating with a 1 in a million beauty, or winning a nobel prize for one’s academic contributions, or becoming an A list celebrity. So one may choose never to invest in going after these goals, and devote the balance of one’s time and energy to optimizing one’s odds of maintaining a median existence, in terms of achievements and experiences. I could name people who seem to be doing that, but you’ve never heard of them.
This is a case of availability heuristic, if I understand what you’re saying. That people who screw up and admit only in the end gets into the news; those who admit big mistakes early do not.
Sounds reasonable. But this example is not really about mistakes, just an adjustment of ambitions and expectations, which might even be subconscious. It’s not really about right or wrong, as I see it.
Eliezer, not bothering to go after a goal may fall into that category. For example, it’s reasonable to choose to live an average life, because one is probably mistaken if one thinks one is likely to have strongly positively deviant outcomes in life, such as becoming a billionaire, or procreating with a 1 in a million beauty, or winning a nobel prize for one’s academic contributions, or becoming an A list celebrity. So one may choose never to invest in going after these goals, and devote the balance of one’s time and energy to optimizing one’s odds of maintaining a median existence, in terms of achievements and experiences. I could name people who seem to be doing that, but you’ve never heard of them.
This is a case of availability heuristic, if I understand what you’re saying. That people who screw up and admit only in the end gets into the news; those who admit big mistakes early do not.
Sounds reasonable. But this example is not really about mistakes, just an adjustment of ambitions and expectations, which might even be subconscious. It’s not really about right or wrong, as I see it.